Kaohoon Morning Brief – 14 February 2022

1) Tension at Ukrainian border escalated on report of 100,000 armed Russians marching

President Biden told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky Sunday that the U.S. and its allies would respond promptly to any further aggression made by Russia against his country.

The statement came after a movement of 100,000 Russians equipped with advanced weaponry lined Ukraine’s eastern border and the northern border with Belarus.

On Friday, Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security advisor, urged any Americans still in Ukraine to leave immediately and said that Putin could order an invasion of Ukraine “any day now.”

 

2) Dispute between Russia and Ukraine could lead to commodities disruption

The dispute between Russia and Ukraine that could lead to a sanction of the former might cause some disruption on global commodities. The oil production may have a risk premium as Russia is behind OPEC+ target. The country is the source of 40-50% of natural gas to European countries. Meanwhile, Russia is the second biggest aluminium producer and more than 25% of global grains production were produced from Russia and Ukraine. Russia has the third largest Bitcoin mining hash rate.

 

3) Saudi Arabia transfers 4% of Aramco to sovereign fund

Saudi Arabia has transferred 4% of Saudi Aramco, its state-owned petroleum and natural gas company, shares worth $80 billion to the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund.

The government said that the transferred shares will bolster the Public Investment Fund’s (PIF) strong financial position and high credit ratings in the medium term.

The state will remain the largest shareholder in Saudi Aramco with more than 94% of stake holding after the transfer.

 

4) Oil prices rise amid escalating tension between Russia and Ukraine

Oil prices continued to surge on Monday amid escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend.

In the morning session of Asian markets, the international benchmark Brent crude rose 1.31% to $95.68 per barrel. The U.S. benchmarket West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased 1.54% to $94.53 per barrel.