Chinese Economy Starts Year Strongly, Headwind Lies Ahead with Surging COVID-19 and Ukraine War

Chinese economy grew strongly in the first two month of the year, however headwind lies ahead as surging COVID-19 cases domestically threaten economic recovery and geopolitical tensions.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial output grew 7.5% in the two months through February compare to 4.3% in December. Bloomberg estimates had expected 4% expansion.

Retail sales rose 6.7%, accelerating from 1.7% in December and beating a 3% increase projected by economists. Investment climbed 12.2% during the two-month period, better than the 5% estimate and last year’s 4.9% growth. The surveyed jobless rate rose to 5.5% last month.

“Overall the economy had good recovery momentum in January and February,” the NBS said in a statement. However, the “external environment still remains complex and grim, and there are many risks and challenges faced by China’s economy,” it added.

It should also be noted, data in the first two months of the year are usually distorted by the Lunar New Year holidays and also complicated by the high based of comparison from last year.