Mrs. Tarika Devahastin, President of Financial Planning of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP), stated that regarding the development of the Clean Fuel Project (CFP), the company has hired engineering, procurement, and construction management (EPCM) contractors to oversee the project.
Currently, the project is in the process of transferring the work from the original contractor, since the company hired additional contractors to complete tasks related to CFP in the second quarter.
Starting from today until the fourth quarter, TOP will try to hire additional contractors to begin CFP construction within this year. If successful, the company may achieve significant progress in the next quarter and possibly fulfill the agreement it made with its shareholder by finishing the project within 3Q28.
As for the TOP’s performance in the second half of the year, there are several factors the company needs to keep its attention to. Such factors, for example, are the U.S. tariff, the U.S. sanction on Russia, and the rise of oil inventory. Another two essential factors are the increase of OPEC+ and non-OPEC+’ oil output.
OPEC+ has been pushing its production since April as there is a speculation that the increase will reach 2.2 million barrels per day, surpassing the group’s original plan. As for the non-group members, the increase of oil output mostly came from the U.S., but the nation is likely to slow the production down in the second half of the year.
Regarding Thailand’s refinery business in 2H25, TOP speculated that the gross refinery margin (GRM) would decrease slightly compared to the second quarter primary due to the arrival of new supply that pressures the gasoline market significantly, as well as the high inventory. Still, the performance of the jet fuel business is likely to recover.
The company forecast that the 2H25 GRM will surpass an average of $4.3 a barrel in 1H25 due to the closing of some refineries.
As for 2H25 aromatic business, there is speculation that there will be an improvement as its demand is likely to increase. The arrival of the new year festival will raise the demand for cloth and downstream products, supporting the aromatic business. However, the business is still pressured by an increase in new supply.
