On Monday, the share price of TMBThanachart Bank Public Company Limited (SET: TTB) closed the morning session at THB 3.14, a THB 0.12 or 3.97% increase with a total trading value of THB 1,296 million.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) stated in a research note that it holds a positive outlook on TTB following an analyst meeting. The securities firm assessed that the company may potentially recognize excess reserves (Management Overlay) as income and raise the dividend payout ratio. As a result, the recommendation has been upgraded from “Hold” (Neutral) to “Buy,” with a new 2026 target price of THB 3.40, up from the previous THB 2.20.
Additionally, the analyst firm has revised TTB’s net profit forecasts for 2026 – 2028 upward by an average of 12 – 33% per year. The net profit is now projected at THB 21.3 billion, THB 21.5 billion, and THB 21.7 billion for each consecutive year. This is mainly driven by fee and service income recovering better than expected, especially from bancassurance and mutual fund businesses. Expected credit loss (ECL) costs are also trending lower than anticipated due to sound asset quality and the potential reversal of the excess reserves.
The upgraded target price also reflects the forecast improvement in return on equity (ROE) for 2026 – 2027, with net profit in 2026 and 2027 anticipated to grow by 3% and 1% year-on-year respectively, compared to previous expectations of a contraction.
Furthermore, the dividend payout ratio for 2026 – 2027 is expected to increase to 75% from the prior estimate of 60%, pushing the dividend yield to approximately 6% per annum. KSS anticipated that in the first half of 2026, TTB will announce a dividend of THB 0.066 per share, representing a yield of about 2.2%.
