Trinity Securities stated that PTG Energy Public Company Limited (SET: PTG) is anticipated to post a net profit of approximately THB 109 million in 2Q26, recovering from a net loss of THB 205 million in the previous quarter, though still down about 65% year-on-year.
The weaker performance compared to last year is due to a decline in oil sales volume by about 10 – 20% following a sharp increase in oil prices, as well as lower-than-normal travel during the Songkran festival. April represented the lowest point, but sales volume started to recover in May and June.
In July, the decline in oil sales volume compared to the prior year narrowed to single digits, reflecting a clearly improving recovery trend.
Nevertheless, the oil business remains supported by strong gross profit per liter at slightly above THB 1.80, as the government has been able to adjust retail oil prices to align with costs more rapidly, and the company has benefited from an uptrend in oil prices.
The non-oil business continues to be a key driver. Gross profit is expected to grow by about 30% year-on-year, supported by the expansion of Punthai Coffee branches to 2,468. Meanwhile, the margin is likely to improve following the company’s reduction of the 50% discount promotions.
However, Non-oil business momentum may slow when compared to the previous quarter, as customer visits to petrol stations have recently decreased.
Looking ahead to 3Q26, Trinity evaluated that PTG’s performance could continue to improve, driven by a gradual recovery in oil sales volume alongside the onset of the season of heightened demand for oil from the agricultural sector.
Marketing margin is expected to remain strong at around THB 1.70 – 1.80 per liter, while close monitoring is needed regarding the risk from potential government policy to lower retail prices, which could cause the company to realize a stock loss in the short term.
Trinity has revised down its profit forecasts for 2026 – 2027 to reflect lower-than-expected sales volume and higher selling and administrative expenses (SG&A) compared to prior assumptions. Profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are now expected to be approximately THB 322 million and THB 1 billion, respectively.
Alongside this, the securities firm upgrades its recommendation on PTG to “Buy” and shifts its target price to be based on 2027, at THB 8.60, based on improving earnings trends and a positive outlook for sales volume. The main risks remain oil price volatility and government policy.
