Pi Securities has estimated that GFPT Public Company Limited (SET: GFPT) will report a net profit of THB 550 million for the second quarter of 2026, representing a 14% year-on-year decline but a 6% increase compared to the previous quarter.
This figure is better than previously anticipated, primarily due to the limited impact from rising costs and the onset of the high season for exports, which has helped to maintain a healthy gross profit margin at approximately 16%.
Total revenue for the quarter is forecast at THB 4,590 million, a 6% decrease year-on-year, in line with a reduction in export volumes to 8,000 tons from 8,500 tons in the same period last year. This decrease follows a ban by China on Thai chicken exports at the end of 2025. However, the expected volume for the period marks an increase from 7,500 tons in 1Q26, reflecting the effects of entering the high export season.
Gross profit margin is projected to be 16.4%, down from 16.7% in 2Q25, which reflects lower export prices to Japan, but up from 14.6% recorded in 1Q26 due to improved export volumes. Although costs have begun to rise, GFPT still holds some older, lower-cost inventory, which has lessened the immediate impact on margins.
Selling, general, and administrative expenses are estimated at THB 358 million, a 4% year-on-year increase and a 13% quarterly rise, mainly due to higher selling expenses, attributable to increased transportation costs following a rise in oil prices.
Share of profit from investments in associates is forecast at THB 132 million, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 33% and 10% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to lower domestic chicken frame prices, which are expected to fall to THB 11-12 per kilogram, compared to THB 14.5 in 2Q25 and THB 13.5 in 1Q26. Tax expenses are expected at THB 42 million, down 39% year-on-year but up 17% quarter-on-quarter, in line with the pre-tax profit base.
Looking ahead to Q3, export volumes are projected to remain above 8,000 tons, while domestic chicken meat prices are expected to recover following declines in the previous quarter. However, there are growing concerns that higher costs will begin to impact gross profits, which are not anticipated to match the 16% margin seen in the second quarter.
One significant risk to monitor closely is the potential for China to export chicken to Thailand. Should this occur, it may have a considerable negative impact on the industry, as China is the world’s second-largest chicken producer with a lower cost base than Thailand.
GFPT’s net profit for 1H26 accounts for 54% of the full-year forecast of THB 1,968 million. Despite the increasing risk from higher costs expected in the third quarter, Pi Securities has maintained its full-year earnings projection.
Based on the expectation that second-quarter results will be better than previously forecast, the brokerage continues to recommend a ‘Buy’ for GFPT as a speculative play in line with domestic chicken prices, with a target price of THB 12.60 per share (8x PER on 2026 estimated earnings).
