Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) expects Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: CRC) to post normalized profit of THB 1.35 billion in the second quarter of 2026, an increase of 43.3% year-on-year.
However, if including profit from discontinued operations related to Rinascente, which was recognized in 2Q25, the net profit for 2Q26 is expected to remain flat compared to the previous year. This is supported by revenue growth and an improved gross profit margin, offsetting the impact from the absence of the Rinascente business.
Total sales in 2Q26 are forecast to grow by 4.5% from the previous year, driven by a same-store sales growth of 1.5% and revenue contribution from new stores. Gross profit margin is expected at 24.3%, up from 23.9% in the same period last year, with margin improvements seen across all three business segments: Fashion, Food, and Hardline.
This improvement is attributed to a shift in product mix toward higher-margin products and increased average selling prices in the Hardline segment. The proportion of selling, general, and administrative expenses to sales is anticipated to decrease slightly due to revenue growth and effective cost management, despite persistently high logistics costs.
CRC’s 2Q26 performance is seen to have surpassed previous expectations, indicating that the impact from economic slowdown and uncertainties due to the ongoing war remains limited. Additionally, strong profitability and continued positive same-store sales trends have led to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2026–2028 by 5–6% per year.
The brokerage has also revised upward its assumptions regarding store expansion in Vietnam, in line with the company’s plan. Between 2026 and 2028, CRC is now expected to open 10 Go! branches and 23 Mini go! branches, compared with the previous forecast of 6 and 12 branches, respectively. As a result, normalized profit from continuing operations in 2026 is projected to grow by 15.9% and total net profit by 6%.
Despite a positive outlook on CRC’s expansion—including Go! Vietnam and Go Wholesale—Finansia notes that shares of CRC have already risen about 49% year-to-date and are currently trading at a 2026 P/E ratio of around 18.7x, roughly 20% above the sector average. With the stock approaching the new target price of THB 27.00 per share, the upside is now limited.
Therefore, the recommendation on the stock has been downgraded from ‘Buy’ to ‘Hold’ to reflect the fact that the price has already responded to positive factors and performance expectations for this year.
