Bangkok Commercial Asset Management Public Company Limited (SET: BAM) is poised for a robust third-quarter rebound in 2026, according to analysis from Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS). The company is expected to post a 3Q26 net profit of THB 607 million, surging by 230% year-on-year and 159% quarter-on-quarter, signaling that earnings likely bottomed out in the previous quarter.
Cash collections are projected to hit THB 4.2 billion, exceeding earlier estimates, buoyed by several mid-sized NPL and NPA case settlements worth THB 400-500 million—transactions considered by management to be more manageable than larger-ticket cases.
The brokerage added that existing joint ventures, Ari and Arun, are showing increased momentum. These JVAMCs, in collaboration with GSB and KBANK, are accelerating settlement activities and benefiting from new portfolio acquisitions.
Notably, Ari is slated for further NPL purchases from GSB and Islamic Bank by 4Q26, and Arun aims to grow its managed NPL portfolio from THB 12 billion to THB 30 billion within two years. Profits generated by these JVs are anticipated to reach THB 100 million and THB 60 million, respectively, pushing BAM’s equity income to an estimated THB 80 million in 3Q26.
Looking ahead, BAM is actively negotiating three new JVAMCs with SCB, KTB, and BAY. The SCB and KTB partnerships are expected to be formalized by year-end, with KTB projected to transfer a THB 20 billion portfolio in 2027, while BAY is expected to follow suit in the first half of 2027.
BAM has acquired over THB 10 billion in housing NPLs from SCB across 2Q-3Q26. Over time, as more retail and housing NPLs funnel through JVs, the company is refocusing its efforts toward SME and corporate NPL management.
With nine-month profits already covering 66% of 2026’s full-year estimate—and the seasonally strongest quarter yet to come—KKPS sees upside to its forecast. BAM’s management expects annual standalone earnings between THB 1.5–1.7 billion, with the addition of five JVs potentially pushing sustainable earnings to THB 2 billion.
Notably, KKPS’ forecasts have yet to include contributions from the new JVs, and BAM’s management has signaled a robust 90% dividend payout ratio, alongside plans for semiannual dividends starting next year. Following these developments, KKPS maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on BAM, with a target price assigned at THB 7.20 per share.
