Maybank Securities (Thailand) has reiterated a ‘Buy’ recommendation on True Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: TRUE), supported by solid core profit growth forecasts for 2026/2027 at 44% and 6%, respectively. The analyst also highlights the widening EV/EBITDA valuation gap compared to ADVANC, currently at 25% versus the 3.6-year average of 14%.
Maybank has revised up its dividend payout ratio estimates for 2026-28, with the new projected dividends per share reflecting dividend yields of 4.6%, 5.0%, and 5.3% for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively. The DCF-based target price remains unchanged at THB 16.60 per share, with a key catalyst for a share price re-rating anticipated from robust core profit in 3Q26.
The estimated dividend payout ratios for 2026/2027/2028 have been increased from 72%/70%/70% to 75%/77%/80% of net profit, outpacing the management’s stated target of at least 70%. The upward adjustment is driven by: 1) strong free cash flow to equity supporting higher dividends, 2) net-debt-to-EBITDA likely declining to the company’s target of 3.0x by 2028, and 3) expectations that major shareholders favour increased dividend income.
According to Maybank, TRUE trades on a 1-year forward EV/EBITDA of 6.9x, a 25% discount to ADVANC’s 9.2x—wider than the 3.6-year average of 14%. A return to the historical average would imply a market price of THB 16.00 for TRUE, 24% above current levels. Additionally, TRUE’s 2026 EV/EBITDA is 10% below the ASEAN telecom sector average.
The brokerage believes this discount is unjustified given TRUE’s presence in a duopoly market. TRUE’s share price is expected to outperform once overhang issues, such as news around China Mobile considering a partial stake sale, are resolved.
Maybank forecasts TRUE’s 3Q26 core profit at THB 6.9 billion, up 55% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter. The annual growth is mainly driven by a 1.3% increase in core service revenue and cost savings in spectrum, network, and interest expenses. On a quarterly basis, growth is underpinned by 1% revenue growth, a 3.3% decline in SG&A costs following heavy 2Q26 marketing campaigns, and a 2.2% reduction in interest expenses.
