Mr. Chaiyot Jiwangkul, Assistant Director of Securities Analysis at Krungsri Securities (KSS), during the “Kaohoon” program on September 30, 2026, stated that recent selling pressure from foreign investors stems primarily from the U.S. Treasury yields rising to near 20-year highs. The U.S. 10-year bond yield stands at approximately 5.2%, prompting some investors to shift funds from risk assets to higher-yielding bonds.
He noted that unless the bond yields decline significantly, foreign capital could continue to flow out of risk assets. However, KSS views the recent selling pressure as regional “basket” portfolio rebalancing rather than targeted selling specifically aimed at the Thai bourse alone, as stock markets in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam have all weakened in the same direction.
Regarding whether the foreign capital previously accumulated through net buying could entirely flow out, Mr. Chaiyot assessed that this is unlikely to occur. He views the current selling round as driven by short-term anxiety and risk reduction rather than a total withdrawal of investment funds from the Thai market or a prolonged outflow through the end of the year, given that the Thai benchmark’s valuation remains competitive relative to other regional markets.
On the buying side to help cushion foreign selling pressure, Mr. Chaiyot sees potential support coming from domestic institutional investors, particularly toward the end of the year. This includes capital from tax-incentive funds gradually entering the market, such as Thai ESG, along with other fund types that could help partially sustain the market.
Regarding domestic factors, despite short-term pressure from the flood situation, there remain positive drivers from government stability and the progression of economic policies following the easing of certain political uncertainties. Meanwhile, once the flood situation passes, the public sector is expected to introduce late-year economic stimulus and purchasing power recovery measures to provide support. However, the overall fourth-quarter outlook is unlikely to see a sharp recovery, but rather a gradual stabilization.
Regarding investment strategy, KSS recommends focusing on selective buy, or investing in stocks with company-specific positive catalysts. The first top pick is CK, which stands to benefit from government investments in water management and infrastructure projects due to its expertise in irrigation construction and water-related operations, alongside tailwinds from an accelerating public investment cycle. KSS maintains a “Buy” recommendation on CK with a target price of THB 25.35.
Another stock recommended by KSS is DELTA, with third-quarter 2026 earnings momentum expected to recover as the company gradually resolves raw material cost issues and certain production constraints, paving the way for improved profit margins. KSS estimates 3Q26 net profit at approximately THB 8 billion, up roughly 33% year-on-year, with potential for continued recovery in 4Q26, while recommending a “Buy” rating with a target price of THB 320.
Additionally, DELTA benefits from further tailwinds associated with passive fund portfolio rebalancing. KSS estimates that DELTA’s current weighting has dropped below 8%, leaving room for a weight increase of approximately 2% relative to the 10% ceiling, which could generate inflows of roughly THB 2 billion from passive funds. However, this figure is merely an estimate, and individual funds may set investment weightings differently based on their respective policies.
Regarding the flood situation, Mr. Chaiyot stated that if conditions are increasingly severe and cause widespread damage, the Thai stock market could initially decline due to concerns over economic impacts, before investors pivot to evaluate government relief and economic stimulus measures, which will serve as a key variable for market recovery.
Referencing statistics from the great flood in 2011, during the flooding period, the Thai stock market experienced a sharp decline. However, after approximately two weeks to one month, as water levels receded and conditions normalized, the benchmark rebounded and subsequently rallied by roughly an additional 10%.
Nevertheless, Mr. Chaiyot emphasized that past events should not be directly compared with current conditions, as each timeframe carries distinct factors and economic environments, while the effectiveness of government relief and economic stimulus measures will remain another crucial variable to monitor.
At the same time, Mr. Chaiyot noted that once the flooding passes, the government is inevitably expected to introduce assistance and economic rehabilitation measures. However, the magnitude of funding and specific structure of these measures remain to be monitored to determine whether they will suffice to restore purchasing power and offset economic damage.
