Krungsri Securities (KSS) sees a bearish outlook on Thailand’s automotive sector following severe flooding in Chonburi and Rayong, where accumulated rainfall exceeded 320 mm over three days. The flooding has disrupted the supply of just-in-time parts, leading to temporary production halts at several major automakers.
Honda has temporarily suspended operations at its Prachinburi and Ayutthaya plants from October 2–6, 2026, with production scheduled to resume on October 7. The company plans to add extra shifts to compensate for the lost output.
Toyota, meanwhile, has paused production at its Samrong, Ban Pho, and Gateway facilities, as well as Toyota Auto Works, at least through October 2. The automaker clarified that the stoppage is a temporary response to disrupted logistics and does not represent a structural reduction in production capacity.
According to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), supply chain damage is now estimated at no less than THB 1,018 million. Despite this setback, the FTI maintains its 2026 vehicle output target at 1.45 million units.
Krungsri expresses a short-term negative view, with the two major automakers losing roughly a week of production in October. Most of this lost output is likely to be recovered in November and December through additional shifts, making the disruption more of a production delay rather than a permanent loss. However, higher overtime and logistics costs could pressure gross profit margins in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Among listed suppliers, STANLY is seen as the most affected due to its significant reliance on Honda, which accounts for 33% of its revenues. SAT and AH are expected to experience indirect impacts through the industry-wide production reduction.
