Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, stated on the ‘Kaohoon’ program on October 5, 2026, that the overall Thai stock market at the beginning of the week is benefiting from increased external supporting factors, particularly U.S. September nonfarm payrolls data that came in significantly below market expectations.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 jobs, prompting market expectations for the probability of a Fed to retain interest rate at the October meeting to be over 80%, while the likelihood of a rate hike dropped to around 20%, down from earlier periods when the market gave considerable weight to a potential rate increase.
This development helped ease concerns over further monetary tightening by the Fed and supported sentiment across risk assets. However, the market still needs to monitor the Fed’s December meeting, where an interest rate adjustment near the end of the year remains possible.
Another factor aiding market sentiment was the easing trend in oil prices. Although oil prices rebounded in the morning following news of Middle East tensions, they subsequently declined as the market focused on G7 plans to release emergency oil reserves to alleviate supply tightness and relieve pressure on energy prices.
Based on these factors, InnovestX set a support level for the SET Index at 1,570 points, and a resistance level at 1,585–1,590 points. The recovery is expected to be gradual, accompanied by volatility stemming from domestic factors, particularly the ongoing flood situation that requires continued monitoring this week and next.
Nevertheless, the flood situation going forward is assessed as potentially less severe than during the end of last month, Mr. Pobchai noted, while the Thai stock market has already largely priced in the negative factor. The Thai benchmark declined by approximately 2% during the period of market concern over the flooding, with preliminary economic impacts estimated at roughly 0.1% of GDP.
Regarding foreign capital flows, foreign investors were net sellers of Thai equities for nine consecutive trading sessions, totaling approximately THB 35 billion, driven in part by risk-reduction strategies amid the flooding, the analyst said. However, if the situation proves less severe than feared, selling pressure may moderate, and foreign capital could gradually return to the Thai equity market.
In addition, diminishing concerns over U.S. policy rates provided positive sentiment for rate-sensitive stocks, particularly the power plants, telecommunications, and financial sectors, which bear relatively high financial costs and stand to benefit from a more relaxed interest rate trajectory.
For investment strategy, InnovestX recommends focusing on domestic play-themed stocks and equities poised to benefit from post-flood recovery, particularly in the retail and construction materials sectors. Key stock picks include HMPRO, GLOBAL, CPALL, BJC, CRC, and DCC, which stand to gain from residential and property repairs following receding waters.
Another notable sector is tourism stocks, supported by the onset of the peak travel season, China’s Golden Week, and major domestic events scheduled for mid-month, which serve as positive drivers for hotel and airport stocks. InnovestX highlights related equities including ERW, CENTEL, and AOT.
Meanwhile, defensive stocks with relatively stable revenue streams and resilience against external volatility include healthcare equities such as BCH and PR9, as well as telecommunications firms like TRUE.
Regarding commercial banks, although several stock prices rose sharply in the preceding period, InnovestX views select banks as regaining attractiveness following recent price pullbacks. Specifically, BBL continues to trade below book value at approximately 0.6 times P/BV and has an estimated dividend yield of about 5.4%. Similarly, KBANK trades at around 0.9 times book value with an attractive forecasted dividend yield of 6.8%, presenting an opportunity for gradual accumulation.
In contrast, KTB has seen significant price gains and trades at approximately 1.2 times book value, resulting in more limited upside; thus, waiting for a price pullback prior to investing is advised.
Regarding domestic political factors, InnovestX assesses that the issue carries limited market weight in the short term, as investor focus remains primarily on the flood situation. However, once flooding subsides, political developments could re-emerge as an influence on investment sentiment.
