Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) projects another solid quarter for PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (SET: PTTEP), with 3Q26 core net profit after tax expected at THB 20.9 billion. This represents a decline from the near-record THB 24.3 billion posted in 2Q26 but still reflects resilient performance.
For the first nine months of 2026, core earnings should reach THB 65 billion, accounting for about 85% of KKPS’ full-year estimate.
However, PTTEP is anticipated to record a THB 2.5 billion oil hedging loss (THB 1.6 billion realized), dragging reported 3Q26 NPAT down to THB 18.3 billion. Reported earnings for 9M26 are forecast at THB 57.3 billion, or 75% of the current consensus projection.
Sequentially weaker production volumes stemmed from planned maintenance in Thai gas fields and fewer oil shipments from the Algeria project. Excluding equity-accounted interests (Tuat/SK408), sales volume averaged 509,000 barrels per day (down 9% quarter-on-quarter).
However, average selling price remained robust at $51.8/bbl, aided by strong oil prices and a retroactive gas price adjustment. Realized liquid prices normalized to a $3/bbl discount to Dubai, while realized gas prices outperformed guidance at $6.5/mmbtu (versus $6.2/mmbtu), due to the JDA-A18-01 adjustment.
Operating costs were well-controlled, with total E&P unit costs around $30/bbl and depreciation/unit dropping $1/bbl to $14/bbl. Notably, PTTEP and its partner secured a 35-year production sharing contract for Block A-18-01 in September 2026, potentially adding 20 million barrels to net 2P reserves. This is expected to further lower depreciation and decommissioning costs per unit.
Earnings from Tuat/SK408 were stable at $15 million, while the Sea Green Wind project saw reduced contributions due to seasonally low wind speeds, with interest income steady at $9 million.
As a result, KKPS maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on PTTEP, citing an attractive valuation, a strong earnings growth outlook relative to 2025, and a high prospective dividend yield. The stock’s target price is given at THB 155 per share.
As of the end of the trading session on Thursday, the share price of PTTEP surged 1.02% or THB 1.50 to THB 148.50, with a trading value of THB 1.98 billion.
