Tipco Asphalt Public Company Limited (SET: TASCO) is poised for a stronger core performance in the third quarter of 2026, according to Globlex Securities, though bottom-line results will be weighed down by elevated expected credit losses and losses from non-bitumen hedging.
TASCO’s core net profit is projected to reach THB 460 million in 3Q26—up from THB 447 million in the previous quarter and THB 156 million in the same period last year—driven by higher total sales volume of 0.3 million tons and an 8-9% quarter-on-quarter increase in average selling prices. These gains are notable as the third quarter is typically a soft period due to budget reviews in Thailand and Indonesia.
Despite these improvements, net profit is forecast at THB 206 million, down from THB 420 million in 2Q26 but higher than THB 180 million a year ago, as delayed customer payments and hedging losses continue to pressure results.
Overseas sales remain key to TASCO’s volume growth, with Thailand’s share of total sales expected to dip below 40% as Asian wholesale markets expand. Meanwhile, tight heavy-crude supply is supporting higher ASP. TASCO’s recent procurement of Venezuelan crude—600,000 barrels in July and 900,000 barrels in August—has not fully restored refining margins, as purchases via traders entail higher costs.
Globlex highlights that a return to direct or long-term contracted Venezuelan crude procurement could be a significant catalyst for margin improvement, helping reduce feedstock costs and boost refining yields. For now, ongoing infrastructure and shipping bottlenecks in Venezuela continue to weigh on export capacity and freight costs.
Looking forward, seasonal trends and the start of new government budgets in Thailand and Indonesia are expected to lift fourth-quarter sales volume to 0.3–0.4mt, supporting TASCO’s full-year target of 1.1–1.2mt. Sustained tight supply and firm ASP are positives for the outlook, though margin upside hinges on future crude procurement terms.
Following these developments, Globlex Securities reiterates a ‘Buy’ rating on TASCO, with a target price of THB 21.00 per share.
