Krungsri Securities (KSS) wrote that the normalized profit of Gunkul Engineering Public Company Limited (SET: GUNKUL) in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to reach THB 601 million, representing a 32% YoY increase and a 6% QoQ increase. The primary drivers for this growth are revenue expansion in its engineering, procurement, and construction segment as well as its electrical equipment trading business.
The EPC business is projected to achieve a 91% YoY increase in revenue, while the Trading segment is anticipated to grow by 30% compared to the previous year, supported by the steady recognition of its construction backlog and ongoing deliveries of electrical equipment to customers, reflecting growth in business areas related to electrical systems and infrastructure.
Additionally, Krungsri estimates that the share of profit from GUNKUL’s power plant segment will rise to approximately THB 301 million, representing a 17% YoY growth and a 128% QoQ increase. This improvement is mainly due to a recovery in performance at the company’s wind power plants, attributed to stronger-than-usual wind currents during the third quarter of 2026.
Given these factors, Krungsri estimates that normalized profit for the first nine months of 2026 will account for approximately 77% of the full-year forecast, indicating that performance remains on track with its projection.
Total revenue for 3Q26 is forecast at approximately THB 2,616 million, up 44.44% YoY, but down 6.21% QoQ. Gross profit is estimated at THB 836 million, a 20.28% increase from the previous year but a 10.33% decrease from the prior quarter. The margin is projected at 31.9%.
EBITDA for the quarter is estimated at THB 1,110 million, up 15.65% YoY and 4.45% QoQ, in line with EPC and Trading segment growth and the recovery of wind power operations.
Looking ahead to 4Q26, Krungsri expects normalized profit to edge up slightly from the previous year but decline from the third quarter, due to a likely reduction in profit share from the wind power segment as wind levels return to normal, along with seasonally higher selling and administrative expenses.
Meanwhile, the EPC and Trading businesses are expected to continue recognizing revenue from an order backlog valued at approximately THB 1,800 million, supporting fourth-quarter performance.
For the medium to long term, Krungsri sees potential for further growth as GUNKUL participates in new bidding rounds for power plant and infrastructure projects, with a combined value of approximately THB 460 billion anticipated to be released for bidding between the fourth quarter of 2026 and 2027.
These include renewable energy projects with a total capacity of 1,500 megawatts, community solar projects totaling 10,000 megawatts, and additional investment plans for the electricity grid by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT).
Currently, the price-to-earnings ratio for GUNKUL’s EPC and Trading businesses stands at approximately 23x, which is lower than the industry average of 28x for listed construction companies on the Stock Exchange of Thailand.
Krungsri forecasts GUNKUL’s normalized profit for 2026 at THB 2,076 million, an increase of 17.38% YoY, with total revenue expected to reach THB 10,877 million, up 28.44% YoY. Normalized profit is projected to reach THB 2,133 million in 2027, and further rise to THB 3,332 million in 2028, driven by ongoing business expansion and new project opportunities.
Strategically, Krungsri maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation on GUNKUL, with a 2027 target price of THB 6.30 per share, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation—assigning THB 4.05 per share value to the power plant business and THB 2.24 per share to the EPC and Trading businesses. GUNKUL is anticipated to benefit from participation in new project bidding, which should support future earnings growth.
