KGI Securities (Thailand) expects Carabao Group Public Company Limited (SET: CBG) to report a 3Q26 core profit of THB 700 million, marking a 5% quarter-on-quarter decline but a 14% increase year-on-year. This brings the company’s 9M26 core profit to THB 2 billion, representing 71% of KGI’s full-year earnings forecast.
The sequential drop in profit is attributed to elevated aluminum and gas costs, even as the company posted ongoing sales momentum across domestic energy drinks, distribution, and branded OEM segments, particularly with strong contributions from Loveza’s fruit soda beverage.
The analyst notes that gross profit margin is expected to dip to 25.4% in 3Q26 from 26.4% in the previous quarter, although SG&A expenses remain tightly controlled. International energy drink revenue should rise 6% year-on-year, led by Myanmar, while seasonality and lost Cambodian sales drive a 24% quarter-on-quarter decline.
Flooding in Bangkok and other provinces has led to distribution delays of 3–5 days, likely deferring some revenue into 4Q26, but CBG’s production facilities remain operational. KGI maintains its 2026 earnings projection, expecting the impact to be temporary and offset by CBG’s rising domestic market share.
Looking ahead to 2027, KGI sees further earnings upside of 4–8% if CBG achieves management’s growth targets, including robust domestic energy drink and distribution sales, recovery in Myanmar, and continued momentum for Loveza. Notably, management is targeting a 10% rise in domestic energy drink sales and 20% growth in distribution revenue, helped by the expansion of CJ More stores.
KGI reiterates an ‘Outperform’ rating on CBG, with a mid-2027 target price of THB 65.00 per share, suggesting potential for a valuation re-rating as earnings are on track to reach THB 3 billion. CBG remains a top pick for the brokerage heading into the final quarter of 2026.
