Maybank Securities expects Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) to report a sharp year-on-year earnings recovery in the third quarter of 2026, supported by stronger refining margins amid conflict in the Middle East. The brokerage recommends “Buy” with a target price of THB 77.00.
Core profit is forecasted at THB 13.7 billion, reversing a loss in the same period last year. However, the brokerage expected the figure to decline quarter-on-quarter as higher freight and insurance expenses weigh on profitability. Under Maybank’s estimates, core earnings for the first nine months would represent 93% of its full-year forecast.
Including non-recurring items, mainly THB 1.8 billion in oil inventory gains, Maybank projects net profit of THB 15.2 billion, a sixfold YoY increase and an 83% rise from the preceding quarter.
Thai Oil’s gross refining margin is estimated at $19.9 per barrel, up fivefold YoY but down 6% QoQ. Diesel spreads are expected to rise threefold YoY and 4% QoQ. Jet fuel spreads are also projected to increase threefold from a year earlier, although they are forecast to fall 6% sequentially following China’s resumption of fuel exports.
Refinery utilization is estimated at 109%, unchanged QoQ but higher YoY. Operations in the third quarter of 2025 were affected by maintenance at the CDU-3 crude distillation unit.
For the lube base business, the margin is forecast at $2 per barrel, up 82% YoY and 5% QoQ. The improvement is supported by asphalt, following reduced exports from Iran, a major supplier. The aromatics margin is estimated at $0.7 per barrel, increasing 40% YoY but declining 13% sequentially because of higher feedstock costs.
Maybank expects earnings to soften QoQ if the conflict continues to ease, putting pressure on refining margins. Nevertheless, GRM should remain above its historical average of $5.5 per barrel, supported by refinery supply constraints and relatively limited new capacity additions compared with previous cycles.
Thai Oil is scheduled to announce its third-quarter results on November 12, 2026.
