Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) maintains a cautious outlook on Thailand’s property sector for 3Q26, emphasizing the continued importance of supply discipline amid ongoing demand challenges. The value of new property launches by the top 10 listed developers is projected to decline by 22% YoY.
Aggregate presales for these firms are expected at THB 48 billion, representing an 11% YoY and 2% QoQ decrease. Among the leading developers under KKPS’ coverage, AP is set to outperform both in presales and earnings growth YoY.
AP (Thailand) (SET: AP) is expected to record strong presales in 3Q26 at THB 13.4 billion, a 7% YoY and 9% QoQ increase, led by an all-time high in landed property presales of THB 11 billion (+11% YoY, +8% QoQ). Condominium presales are estimated at THB 2.3 billion (-8% YoY, +12% QoQ).
AP’s core profit is forecast at THB 1.19 billion, up 3% YoY and 12% QoQ, supported by residential revenue growth to THB 10.9 billion (+23% YoY, +3% QoQ), with a stable gross margin of 29.3%. Profit sharing from joint venture condominiums is expected to recover QoQ as two JV condos begin transfers this quarter.
Supalai (SET: SPALI) faces a challenging quarter with presales of THB 5.6 billion, down 35% YoY but up 6% QoQ. Landed property presales declined 17% YoY, while condos dropped 53% due to a high base from a sold-out project in the previous year.
Core profit is estimated at THB 990 million, down 15% YoY and 40% QoQ, reflecting a high base effect from the previous quarter. Residential revenue is projected at THB 6.6 billion, a modest 5% YoY rise, but gross margin is expected to decline to 31.0% from 35.8% YoY due to a lower contribution from high-margin condos.
Sansiri (SET: SIRI) is expected to deliver weak presales at THB 9 billion (54% from landed property, 46% from condos), a 20% YoY and 10% QoQ drop, with declines in both segments. Nevertheless, core profit is forecast at THB 1.1 billion, up 19% YoY and 9% QoQ, driven by residential revenue of THB 7.1 billion (+3% YoY, +15% QoQ) and a gross margin recovery to 30.0%.
SIRI benefits from equity income gains related to warehouse sales to a REIT and will book an extra gain of THB 100 million from land sales to a joint venture, contributing to a net profit of THB 1.2 billion.
Land and Houses (SET: LH) is expected to see an improvement in presales to THB 3.1 billion, up 10% YoY and 4% QoQ, driven largely by landed property. Despite this, core profit remains subdued at THB 754 million, down 5% YoY but up 50% QoQ, as the company continues to struggle with persistent YoY declines since 1Q23. However, residential revenue is set for a robust 23% QoQ rise to THB 2.95 billion, with gross margin rebounding from 12.9% to 18.0% in 3Q26.
As a result, KKPS gives a ‘Buy’ rating to both SPALI and AP, reflecting positive prospects for these developers, while maintaining an ‘Underperform’ rating on LH and a ‘Neutral’ rating on SIRI, with target prices of THB 17.50, THB 10.50, THB 3.40, and THB 1.46, respectively.
