Two brokerage firms remain positive on The Siam Cement Public Company Limited (SET: SCC) after a 3Q26 earnings report yesterday that marked a turnaround for the business to make profit despite falling short of market expectations.
Trinity Securities wrote that SCC posted a net profit of THB 2,385 million in 3Q26, which was lower than both the firm’s and market expectations. This represented a 79% QoQ decrease, but marked a turnaround from a net loss of THB 669 million in 3Q25. Adjusted profit stood at THB 1,788 million, down 83% QoQ but up 55% YoY.
Total revenue was THB 122,666 million, a 10% decrease QoQ, while adjusted cash EBITDA was THB 14,444 million, falling 48% QoQ, reflecting weakened performance across nearly all business lines, especially in the Chemicals segment. The petrochemical price spread declined, and LSP’s losses increased. Meanwhile, the CBM and Packaging businesses were pressured by higher energy and raw material costs.
The Chemicals business (SCGC) reported a loss of THB 1,738 million, compared to a profit of THB 4,820 million in 2Q26. The HDPE–Naphtha spread declined 27% QoQ and the PP–Naphtha spread decreased 14% QoQ. LSP’s losses rose to THB 3,326 million from THB 631 million in the previous quarter after ceasing operations since mid-May, even with a stock gain of around THB 905 million. The CBM business recorded a profit of THB 1,669 million, down 41% QoQ due to higher energy costs and seasonal factors.
For the 4Q26 outlook, Trinity believes profits face the risk of stagnation or further weakening compared to 3Q26. While the Chemicals segment will benefit from ROC resuming operations since mid-September, this will be offset by the planned turnaround at MOC in November, which coincides with the petrochemicals industry’s low season.
LSP is unlikely to support profits in the short term and is expected to return to operation in 2Q27. CBM, however, may recover after the rainy season and from cost reduction measures. The brokerage notes progress in the LSP Ethane Project, which is advancing faster than scheduled. This project will help restructure costs and reduce LSP’s losses significantly.
Trinity maintains a ‘Buy’ rating, with a target price of THB 294 per share, despite having a slightly negative view of SCC’s 3Q26. A positive long-term outlook is reiterated, especially due to the joint venture between SCGC and PTTGC, with an estimated annual synergy range of THB 5,100–6,800 million from improved feedstock efficiency, supply chain, and operations.
Similarly, Phillip Securities (Thailand) also notes that SCC reported a lower-than-expected 3Q26 profit. The quarterly decline was mainly due to the Chemicals business returning to a loss and the LSP plant halting production, resulting in an increased loss of THB 3.3 billion from this segment.
Dividend income also decreased, with product spreads for HDPE, PP, and PVC all narrowed compared to the previous quarter. The cement business faced higher coal costs and restructuring-related expenses.
On a YoY basis, profit increased due to SCGP’s ability to raise packaging prices in response to higher costs and improved operations in Indonesia. The Chemicals segment also reduced its loss YoY, as product spreads increased. In 3Q26, SCGP contributed the most to group profit (THB 2.0 billion), followed by cement (THB 1.7 billion), while Chemicals posted a loss of THB 1.7 billion.
As a result, Phillip gives a ‘Gradual Buy’ recommendation, with a 2027 target price of THB 304 per share, citing the LSP plant as a key factor that will enhance the Chemicals segment’s performance given its lower ethane feedstock cost compared to the two naphtha-based plants in Thailand. The LSP plant is expected to begin operations in mid-2027.
