Pi Securities expects Home Product Center Public Company Limited (SET: HMPRO) to see a year-on-year recovery in profit during 4Q26. The company’s same-store sales growth in the quarter to date has been positively impacted mainly by post-flood demand, although overall consumer purchasing power has yet to recover fully.
Most sales growth has come from products related to post-flood repairs, resulting in SSSG figures of +6.5% for HomePro, +12% for Mega Home, and -6% for HomePro Malaysia.
Meanwhile, the return of the HomePro Expo after a two-year hiatus, scheduled for November 6-15, 2026, is seen as a positive development, though the event’s sales area will be reduced by 50%. Historically, the event has generated sales of around THB 500-600 million, accounting for approximately 3% of quarterly sales. Pi Securities estimates that the expo will provide a sales upside in the range of 1%-3%.
In the medium term, HMPRO is focusing on growth through online channels. Online sales have shown consistent growth since the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 9.2% of total sales in the first nine months of 2026, up from 8.2% in 2025. Products that require installation, particularly home appliances, represent 30%-40% of online sales. Pi Securities sees further opportunity to expand into other product categories that require installation services or have specific size and format requirements.
Additionally, the hybrid store model continues to support sales growth. Positive SSSG has been recorded from this model, with planned expansion to 18 branches in 2026 from 14 in 2025, and with the potential for another 10 branches in the future. This is expected to further drive company sales.
However, the planned opening of six new hybrid model branches in 4Q26 has been postponed to 2027, with only two—HomePro Phuket (Anusawari) and HomePro Rattanathibet (Hybrid model)—slated for opening this quarter. In 2027, the company plans to open one to two new branches and convert three to five existing branches to the hybrid model, mostly branches postponed from 4Q26; the focus will also shift toward upgrading existing branches to boost per-branch sales.
Pi Securities maintains a neutral view on these strategies, expecting them to enable year-on-year sales growth for HMPRO in the medium term. For the short term, the analyst forecasts year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth in 4Q26 results, with an attractive dividend yield of 6%.
Following these, a ‘Buy’ recommendation is reiterated, as sales of house-brand products continue to support strong performance. The fair value is set at THB 7.50 per share, based on a 15x 2027 PE multiple, close to the retail sector average.
