Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has reiterated its “Buy” rating on Bangkok Airways Public Company Limited (SET: BA) with a target price of THB 25, citing resilient Samui demand despite higher ticket fares, an attractive valuation, and a prospective dividend yield.
The brokerage forecasts third-quarter core profit of THB 940 million, down 12% year-on-year but up 165% quarter-on-quarter, supported by strong Samui operations.
Total passenger volume is expected to rise 1 – 2% YoY, driven by 10 – 12% growth in Samui passenger traffic. KKPS projects the load factor to increase by 3 – 4 percentage points to 79 – 80%, while ticket fares are forecast to rise 4 – 5%. Passenger yield is expected to improve by 7%, with passenger revenue growing 5%.
Non-airline revenue is projected to increase 6%, led by higher passenger service charges (PSC). However, fuel expenses are expected to surge 35 – 40% on higher jet fuel spot prices, while non-fuel costs are forecast to rise 6 – 7%. Share income should increase 3 – 5%, supported by the cargo business.
Looking forward, fourth-quarter 2026 performance is expected to soften. Citing the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand, KKPS noted that Samui passenger volume fell 8 – 9% YoY in October. The decline partly reflected the earlier Sukkot holiday, a major travel period for Israeli tourists, which fell on September 26 – October 2, compared with October 7 – 13 the previous year. This may have shifted some travel demand into September.
BA reduced Samui flights by 6 – 7% YoY in response to weaker demand to maintain its load factor. KKPS expects passenger traffic to recover in December as the high season begins. Nevertheless, jet fuel prices increased from $140 – 150 per barrel in the third quarter to $170 – 180 in the fourth quarter to date, prompting KKPS to forecast a YoY decline in fourth-quarter profit.
The brokerage maintained its 2026 profit forecast at THB 3.5 billion, down 8% YoY, describing this as a strong performance given the ongoing Middle East conflict. Although KKPS raised its 2026 jet fuel price assumption from $132 to $145 per barrel, higher ticket fares are expected to largely offset the impact.
BA trades at nine times estimated 2027 earnings, below the regional peer average of 13 times. KKPS also sees the prospective 7% dividend yield as a potential cushion against downside risk.
