On Monday at 12:08 PM (Bangkok time), the share price of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: BCP) rose by 2.31% or THB 1.00 to THB 44.25, with a trading value of THB 218.98 million.
Morgan Stanley gives an ‘Overweight’ rating on BCP with a target price of THB 65.70 per share, following another impressive earnings beat in 3Q26. The company reported core earnings of THB 14.5 billion, surpassing the brokerage’s optimistic forecasts. This outperformance came despite several challenging factors, including reduced refinery utilization, narrower diesel discounts, and increased crude-sourcing costs.
Bangchak’s operational cash flow reached $582 million, buoyed by robust refining performance and a reduction in working capital requirements. However, oil-fund receivables climbed to THB 16.9 billion, while net debt declined by 10% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting prudent financial management.
The core refinery margin stood at $17.4 per barrel, roughly three times the industry mid-cycle average, even after accounting for inventory gains and a hedging loss totaling -$3.64 per barrel. Refinery utilization fell to 89% due to a scheduled 28-day shutdown at the Sriracha facility, which temporarily impacted production.
Total fuel volumes saw a 4% year-on-year decrease, with gasoline/diesel sales down by 3%. The marketing margin similarly declined, falling to $3.8 per barrel from $6.1 per barrel in the previous quarter, a result of increased price competition and promotional activities.
Notably, Bangchak’s sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) unit commenced commercial operations in May. In the third quarter, the unit operated at 6.6 thousand barrels per day, contributing THB 969 million to EBITDA. SAF sales surged 37% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 53.6 million litres.
