InnovestX Securities has lifted its mid-2027 price target for CP All Public Company Limited (SET: CPALL) to Bt62 from Bt60 and added the stock to its Conviction List. The brokerage maintained its three-month Outperform recommendation, citing stronger convenience store operations and an anticipated earnings recovery at CPAXT.
InnovestX increased its earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 by 3%. It now forecasts core profit of Bt32.05 billion this year and Bt34.45 billion next year, reflecting improved sales and margins at CPALL’s convenience stores alongside a more favourable outlook for its subsidiary.
Valuation also supports the brokerage’s positive stance. Based on the November 11 closing price of Bt47, CPALL trades at approximately 12.4 times projected 2027 core earnings, below the retail sector’s average of 14–15 times.
CPALL’s third-quarter results showed a divergence between underlying performance and reported profit. Core earnings reached Bt7.45 billion, increasing 15.3% from a year earlier and 0.7% from the preceding quarter, exceeding InnovestX and market estimates by around 5–6%.
Reported net profit, however, declined 6.6% year-on-year to Bt6.16 billion after net exceptional charges of Bt1.29 billion. These largely reflected CPAXT’s store closure costs, partly offset by foreign-exchange gains.
The earnings beat came principally from stronger-than-expected other income in the convenience store business. CPALL’s Monchhichi stamp promotion attracted greater supplier participation and substantial premium-item redemptions, increasing supplier-funded marketing income.
Operating indicators also improved. Convenience store same-store sales rose 2.5% year-on-year, compared with 0.8% growth in the second quarter. Average spending per transaction increased 3.5% to Bt89, although daily customer traffic per store fell 1.8% to 926.
Merchandise gross margin widened by 20 basis points, while selling and administrative expenses grew more slowly than sales. CPALL added 207 Thai stores during the quarter, taking its domestic network to 16,491 outlets.
InnovestX expects fourth-quarter earnings to increase both annually and sequentially. Convenience store same-store sales were estimated to be growing about 2% year-on-year in the quarter to date, with margins and promotional income providing further support. Stamp collection continues until November 23, while premium redemptions remain available through December 15.
At CPAXT, the closure of 673 loss-making Lotus’s Go Fresh stores is expected to reduce operating expenses. Those outlets previously generated combined net losses of approximately Bt320–400 million per quarter.
CPAXT’s consumer retail business recorded double-digit same-store sales growth in the fourth quarter to date, supported by stockpiling demand and a low comparison base following IT disruptions last year. Its wholesale business posted low- to mid-single-digit growth.
For 2027, InnovestX also expects a positive earnings contribution from the consolidation of Malaysian premium supermarket operator TFP. Nevertheless, the brokerage identified changes in government policy and consumer purchasing power as key risks to its outlook.
