CPF’s third-quarter 2026 core profit fell 83% year-on-year to THB1 billion, missing forecasts as losses deepened at CTI’s Chinese pig operations. Exceptional gains lifted reported net profit above expectations, but InnovestX Securities warned that weak pig prices could put market earnings estimates under pressure.
InnovestX maintained its Outperform recommendation and THB27 target price, with further updates expected after CPF’s analyst meeting on November 13.
Core earnings declined 77% from the previous quarter and fell short of the THB2 billion–THB3 billion anticipated by InnovestX and the market. CTI recorded a larger recurring loss, reflecting weaker operating performance and biological asset losses as Chinese pig prices declined.
Pressure has continued into the fourth quarter. InnovestX noted that pig prices in both China and Vietnam remained weak quarter-to-date, with supply high relative to demand. Together with the third-quarter core earnings miss, these conditions could create downside risk to market profit forecasts.
Reported net profit reached THB5.2 billion, broadly unchanged year-on-year and up 28% quarter-on-quarter. This exceeded InnovestX and market estimates of THB2.3 billion–THB2.8 billion, supported by approximately THB4.2 billion in exceptional gains.
InnovestX estimated that the disposal of CTI’s loss-making pig farms contributed around THB4.8 billion, after accounting for CTI’s asset-sale gains and an impairment of CPP’s investment in CTI. The farms sold represented approximately 20%–25% of production capacity in China.
The exceptional items also included THB179 million in foreign-exchange gains, partly offset by approximately THB700 million in losses associated with CPAXT. Those losses mainly reflected impairment expenses linked to Lotus’s Go Fresh closures, calculated according to CPF’s ownership interests of 8.85% in CPAXT and 34.87% in CPALL.
