The share price of a Thai-listed Carabao Group settled 5.26% higher at THB60.00 per share on Tuesday, following the revised data that showed its market share increasing, while its rivals such as OSP’s M-150 declined.
After the analyst meeting, CGS International Securities (Thailand) (CGSI) stated that domestic market shares of Carabao Group Public Company Limited (SET: CBG) are on a stable rise following the revised data discrepancies by Nielsen.
The latest data showed that Carabao Dang’s market share increased to 25.8% in March, up from 25.1%. Conversely, OSP’s M-150 share has dipped to 29.9% from a previous 30.6%. This highlights a strong upward trajectory for Carabao Dang, progressing from 24.4% in January to 25.5% in February, and reaching 25.8% in March. April saw a slight decline to 25.7%, yet this remains significantly higher than last year’s figures. This notable market share increase is expected to enhance operating leverage in upcoming quarters.
Looking forward to the second quarter of 2025, prospects are outstanding. Management anticipates a domestic sales surge for Carabao Dang, with estimated increases standing at 34% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter—reflecting resilient demand despite challenging economic conditions.
The Myanmar plant marks a pivotal shift in strategy. The launch is set for June, aiming for full operational capacity by late July. This development should finally equalize competition with OSP.
Previously, CBG endured structural setbacks such as import challenges and a ban on marketing imported goods. Local production is set to enable full-scale marketing efforts, enhance distribution strength, and alleviate supply issues.
While specific volume targets have not been disclosed, historical sales to Myanmar were between 1.3 to 1.4 million cases per month, sharply down to the current 500,000–600,000 cases. The plant’s starting capacity of 400,000 cases per month may fall short if recovery exceeds projections.
Next in line is the Cambodian plant, expected to launch in November and reach full operations by January 2026, thus enhancing the company’s regional competitiveness and cost-effectiveness.
Profit growth momentum remains strong heading into 2Q25. Robust domestic sales and market share expansion are anticipated to more than counterbalance ongoing export challenges, especially in Cambodia. A quarter-on-quarter recovery in international sales is anticipated, although still likely trailing year-on-year figures.
Gross margins continue to show an upward trend. While domestic margins might be pressured by an increase in sugar tax, export margins are forecasted to improve significantly as global sugar prices decrease. With aluminium prices showing signs of stability and stringent cost controls in place, the margin outlook is promising going into the second half of 2025.
In summary, CBG’s earnings outlook is becoming increasingly clear, reinforced by strong domestic momentum and strategic breakthroughs from the new manufacturing facilities. Successful execution in Myanmar could substantially enhance the company’s market evaluation.
