The share price of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) saw a notable rise on Tuesday 10:14 a.m., trading at THB 29.25, up THB 0.75 or 2.63% with a total trading value of THB 180.13 million.
The latest rally in TOP’s share price is attributed to renewed analyst confidence, with multiple brokers voicing a “Buy” recommendation due to expectations of a corporate recovery.
According to Daol Securities (Thailand), the research team maintains its 2025 net profit forecast at THB 9.8 billion, a flat growth compared to the previous year. The firm expects higher accounting GRM (Gross Refining Margin) to offset a decline in non-operating gains.
For 2026, Daol Securities projects TOP’s profit to rise 8% year-on-year to THB 10.6 billion, supported by an improved market GRM and lower net-of-NRV stock loss.
The analysts believe the share price has already priced in most of the risks related to the Clean Fuel Project (CFP), while the company stands to benefit from continued recovery in crack spreads in 2Q25, which is expected to extend into the second half due to seasonal factors. The securities firm reiterates its 2025 target price for TOP at THB 36.00.
Similarly, Krungsri Securities highlights several tailwinds for TOP in the latter half of 2025, including progress in securing a main contractor, which helps reduce the overhang from the CFP project.
The rebound in profit outlook is underpinned by reduced stock losses and a recovery in refining margins. The refinery’s cash flow remains robust over the long term, and further upside could materialize if additional CFP-related contingent risks unwind—so far, 91% of the reserve funds have already been secured by the company.
As of May 26, the Singapore complex refining margin had climbed for the third consecutive day to $7.4 per barrel, a positive indicator for refinery sector stocks.
Additionally, Bandhit Thamprajamchit, Chief Executive Officer and President of TOP has informed the Stock Exchange of Thailand regarding the reference made to Senior and Unsecured $600 million 30-year debentures with a fixed coupon rate of 5.375% p.a. due in 2048, which were issued by Thaioil Treasury Center Company Limited (TTC), a wholly owned subsidiary of Thai Oil, in November 2018 and fully guaranteed by the company
The company has informed that, TTC, as of the date of this announcement, has repurchased a principal amount of $43 million of the Debentures from the secondary market. The aggregate principal amount of the Debentures outstanding due in 2048 was $557 million.
