Leading securities firms agree that the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran is poised to become a significant short-term drag on global equity markets. This unanimous outlook follows reports of Israel launching airstrikes against Iran last night (June 13) and declaring a nationwide “special state of emergency.”
Phillip Securities (Thailand) noted that the Dow Jones Futures and S&P 500 Futures dropped sharply by 1.34% and 1.73%, respectively. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices surged to $74 per barrel, an increase of more than 8%, amid concerns that Iran—a major global oil producer—could face export disruptions.
Kasikorn Securities commented that global financial markets have entered a “risk-off” environment, with investors rushing to safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds. At the same time, the firm highlighted a weakening Dollar Index, which might signal that if tensions subside, emerging market (EM) assets—including Thai equities—could experience a rebound.
Pi Securities (Thailand) and Finansia Syrus Securities also concurred that energy stocks, particularly PTTEP, stand to benefit clearly from surging oil prices. PTTEP is supported by strong fundamentals, with consensus forecasts estimating a 2025 profit of around THB 58 billion and a dividend yield near 8% per annum.
Most analysts emphasize that developments in the Middle East should be monitored closely and recommend a strategy focused on short-term trading within the energy sector while temporarily reducing exposure to risk assets, pending greater clarity on the stance and actions of both involved parties.
