India is set to overhaul its Goods and Services Tax (GST) structure, slashing the current four-rate system to just two brackets—5% and 18%—with the changes expected to take effect this October.
The move is anticipated to meaningfully spur domestic consumption, offsetting some external trade pressures, including U.S. import tariffs of 25% on Indian goods. Analysts say the impact of these tariffs should remain limited as exports contribute only 20-23% to India’s GDP.
Currently, India’s GST features four main rates: 5%, 12%, 18%, and 28%. The new plan will phase out the 12% and 28% categories, shifting most goods previously taxed at these rates into the 5% and 18% brackets instead.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) forecasts that several Thai-listed companies with exposure to India will directly benefit from the policy shake-up. Indorama Ventures (SET: IVL), which derives approximately 10% of its revenue from India, and PTT Global Chemical (SET: PTTGC), with around 4% of its income linked to the market, are among the prime beneficiaries. Meanwhile, Global Power Synergy (SET: GPSC) has about 30% of its equity megawatts invested in India and generates around 14% of its profit there.
Indirect beneficiaries include Thai tourism and hospitality stocks such as The Erawan Group (SET: ERW) and Central Plaza Hotel (SET: CENTEL), with Indian tourists accounting for roughly 8% and 5% of their revenues, respectively. Minor International (SET: MINT) also receives around 5% of its income from the segment.
Retail, food, and agriculture players like CP Axtra (SET: CPAXT), Charoen Pokphand Foods (SET: CPF), and Thai Union Group (SET: TU) are also expected to see positive ripple effects from stronger Indian consumption.
The analyst notes that the Indian GST overhaul presents a clear upside for Thai equities tied to the Indian market, particularly within petrochemical, energy, tourism, and hotel sectors, as rising consumption and travel are poised to underpin future earnings growth.
