Krungsri Securities stated that, for this week, the refinery sector is expected to benefit from the continued recovery in product spreads, which are approaching yearly highs, and ongoing supply disruptions. Additionally, freight costs are steadily returning to normal, supporting a positive outlook for the refinery group in 2H25 due to the absence of large stock losses and the improvement in gross refining margins.
The firm maintains its top picks: Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: BCP), which has undertaken fewer maintenance shutdowns than other refineries and benefits more from middle distillates, as well as PTG Energy Public Company Limited (SET: PTG), expected to recover in 2H25 along with market margin improvements, and as the government lowers fuel fund contributions following a steady improvement in the fund’s status.
The outlook for crude oil prices in October 2025 remains in a declining trend compared to the previous month, as OPEC’s oil supply is set to increase per production expansion plans. The next OPEC+ technical meeting is scheduled for November 2, 2025, with the main meeting on November 30, 2025. Refining margins in October are expected to recover from the prior month, driven by Europe’s requirement to restock fuel and the normalization of freight rates.
For 4Q25, Dubai crude average prices are expected to decrease from Q3, pressured by increased OPEC supply as compensation quotas are reduced and continuous production increases. The 2025 average Dubai crude oil price is projected at $68.5 per barrel. Singapore refining margins in Q4 are anticipated to recover due to sustained demand.
In 4Q25, olefin spreads (HDPE/PP) are set to recover from the previous quarter, rebounding from a low base as subdued margins lead some producers to cut operations and increased restocking in preparation for year-end festivities. Aromatics spreads are expected to stabilize compared to 3Q25 (when they rose early in the quarter) and should gradually recover with downstream demand and additional production cuts.
Chaiwat Kovavisarach, President and Group CEO of Bangchak Group and BCP, previously stated that Bangchak has adjusted its business strategy to “Accelerating Bangchak 100x: Pivoting for Energy Security and Sustainability”, targeting a 100% increase in EBITDA to THB 80 billion by 2028, to enhance value creation and competitive advantage.
Poramate Sanguanchokewanich, Chief Strategy and Business Transformation Officer at PTG, mentioned earlier that PTG’s fuel sales in 2025 are expected to grow by 1-3% YoY. The growth forecast for non-oil business revenue (excluding LPG) this year has been revised upward from 40-50% to 50-60%, supported by a strong H1 growth rate of 62.6%. Gross margin of the non-oil business has been raised from 30-35% to 35-40%, with H1 growth at 31.1% due to aggressive branch expansion and efficient cost management.
