KGI Securities (Thailand) stated that on November 10, CK Power Public Company Limited (SET: CKP) is expected to report its 3Q25 net profit, which is anticipated to be this year’s peak, at THB 853 million—a 28% decrease year-on-year, but a 40% increase quarter-on-quarter.
The profit decline from 3Q24 is mainly due to lower foreign exchange (FX) gains, despite strong hydropower output. However, core profit is expected to remain robust at THB 826 million, up 134% quarter-on-quarter and 41% year-on-year (excluding FX gains), driven by higher water inflows due to La Niña conditions and lower interest costs at Xayaburi Power Plant (XPCL).
The increase in core profit from 2Q25 is mainly attributed to the favorable hydropower season, while profit from small power producers (SPP) remained steady. Additionally, electricity output from the Nam Ngum 2 project (NN2) is projected to reach 1,001 gigawatt-hours, up 91% quarter-on-quarter and 54% year-on-year. XPCL’s electricity generation is likely at 2,443 gigawatt-hours, up 44% quarter-on-quarter and 25% year-on-year. Gas prices for SPPs are projected to decline to THB 301 per MMBTU.
CKP’s 9-month 2025 core profit may reach up to THB 1,200 million, a 152% year-on-year increase.
However, CKP’s 3Q25 profit is expected to be its annual peak, with a likely decline in core profit for 4Q25 due to seasonality, lower hydropower output, and weaker electricity demand, though 4Q25 profit may still increase versus 4Q24 due to higher water volumes for NN2 carried from the previous quarter and lower XPCL interest costs. Water inflows at both plants are expected to decrease between August and September 2025, but the effective design of NN2’s reservoir will help mitigate this impact.
However, 4Q25 core profit is likely to fall short of earlier market expectations, leading to a weaker 2026 outlook. The recommendation for CKP has been revised down from “Buy” to “Hold,” with a new 2026 year-end target price of THB 2.70 (previously THB 3.40).
Thanawat Trivisvavet, Managing Director of CKP, previously stated that water inflows at NN2 and XPCL rose in 3Q25 due to seasonality. Coupled with Thailand’s policy rate cut in the first half of the year, interest costs have decreased, supporting CKP’s overall performance to continue growing in the second half of the year.
Previously, Thitipat Nananukool, Assistant Managing Director of Finance and Accounting at CKP, revealed that the company sees clean energy as an increasingly demanded resource among industrial power users. The company’s investment plan will focus on clean energy, specifically on solar and hydro projects.
In the next 2-3 years, CKP will continue investing in large projects with existing long-term power purchase agreements (PPA), while also seeking opportunities to expand into additional solar and hydro projects. At present, CKP’s total installed capacity stands at 3,640 megawatts (MW).
Notably, the Luang Prabang Hydropower Project (LPCL) in Laos, with an installed capacity of 1,460 MW (CKP holds a 50% stake), has received a concession from the Lao government for design, development, and construction, with all output to be sold to Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand under a 35-year contract starting from the commercial operation date (COD). COD is expected to commence in early 2030.
