On Monday at 11:22 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited (SET: OR) expanded by 2.16% or THB 0.30 to THB 14.20, with a trading value of THB 142.61 million.
DAOL Securities has revised its recommendation for PTT Oil and Retail Business to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold,’ reflecting a more optimistic view of the company’s overall business outlook.
The brokerage firm expects OR to deliver a robust net profit of THB 2.5 billion in the third quarter of 2025, which covers the typical low season, marking a turnaround from a THB 1.6 billion loss in the third quarter of last year and a 13% increase quarter-on-quarter.
The analyst provided several key assumptions supporting its upgraded stance:
- The Mobility segment is seen posting a strong average gross profit per litre (GP/litre) at THB 1.01, up 99% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter. This should help offset weaker domestic fuel sales volumes.
- The Lifestyle segment is forecast to maintain a healthy EBITDA margin at 27.4%, significantly higher than 20.2% in the third quarter of the previous year, though slightly below the 28.7% recorded in the prior quarter. Sales volume from Café Amazon is also expected to reach a new high.
- The Global segment is likely to see softer overseas fuel sales volume, primarily due to reduced demand in Cambodia.
DAOL Securities has also raised the net profit projections for 2025 and 2026 by 23% and 15%, respectively, to THB 10.8 billion for each year. This reflects expectations for higher gross profit per litre, lower financing costs, and improved equity income from associates.
Incorporating these adjustments and a new base year, DAOL has set a new target price of THB 16.00 per share for OR, based on a 2026E P/E ratio of 17.7x, which is about two standard deviations below the five-year average P/E of the retail sector.
