On Wednesday at 10:51 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (SET: THAI) surged by 3.64% or THB 0.30 to THB 8.55, with a trading value of THB 136.63 million.
Bualuang Securities (BLS) wrote that Thai Airways posted a core profit of THB 5.42 billion in the third quarter of 2025, up 307% year-on-year, driven by lower fuel prices and reduced maintenance expenses.
However, the broker noted a 1% year-on-year decline in passenger numbers to 3.90 million and highlighted increased competitive pressure, as reflected in an 8% year-on-year drop in average passenger yield to THB 2.61 per revenue passenger-kilometer. Freight yield also fell by 11% year-on-year to THB 8.39 per ton-kilometer. Quarter-on-quarter, core profit decreased by 20%, in line with typical seasonal trends.
Looking ahead, Bualuang expects fourth-quarter results to improve sequentially, supported by the peak travel season in Thailand and a shift in commercial strategy emphasizing network-based sales. This is anticipated to boost both passenger volumes and yield. Nevertheless, the broker cautioned that an impairment loss on aircraft could be recognized in Thai Airways’ fourth-quarter financial statements.
For 2026, growth is forecast to be driven by an increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) as the airline gradually brings new aircraft into service. This outlook assumes Thai Airways maintains its profitability, with potential upside if additional aircraft leases are secured—a development the broker expects to be clarified by year-end. Passenger yield for 2026 is projected to remain stable at around THB 2.78 per revenue passenger-kilometer, similar to the 2025 level.
Consensus estimates for Thai Airways’ 2025 net profit have been revised up 23% over the past three months to THB 34.4 billion, while 2026 earnings are projected at THB 29.1 billion, a 15% year-on-year decrease.
Shares of THAI are currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.9 times for 2026, which is 47% below the regional airline average of 14.9 times. Bualuang Securities believes that Thai Airways’ robust operating performance should continue to support the stock’s price moving forward.
