On Wednesday at 11:24 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited (SET: SPRC) slumped by 7.26% or THB 0.45 to THB 5.75, with a trading value of THB 106.83 million.
Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) dropped by 4.11% or THB 1.50 to THB 35.00, with a trading value of THB 432.94 million.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) wrote that Brent crude fell by 1.40% to close at $62.48 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 1.51% to $57.95 per barrel. The decline was attributed to news that Ukraine had accepted a peace framework mediated by the United States, which may mark a crucial step toward ending the nearly four-year-long war and potentially lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russia, opening the door for Russian oil to re-enter global markets.
This development is seen as a negative factor for oil-related stocks, including PTTEP, PTT, and refineries such as TOP, BCP, and SPRC. In contrast, Krungsri maintains a positive view on anti-commodity stocks such as construction materials (TASCO, TOA) and airlines (THAI, AAV).
Similarly, Yuanta Securities noted reports on positive developments in U.S.-Ukraine negotiations held in the UAE, with Ukraine signaling acceptance of a revised peace proposal. Earlier this week, the two sides condensed the peace plan from 28 provisions to 19, with sensitive details pending decisions by national leaders, who are set to meet soon.
However, the sources did not specify details of the agreement or confirm whether Russia was present at the negotiations or endorsed the proposal.
Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) announced a 1.9 million barrel build in crude oil inventories, while gasoline and distillate stocks rose by 5–8 million barrels.
Despite skepticism about a swift Russia-Ukraine agreement, analysts stress the significance of these peace talks for the oil market, particularly given the current challenging situation in Ukraine. Should a breakthrough occur or positive momentum continue, oil prices may face additional pressure as Russian supply—estimated to have been reduced by 0.5–1.5 million barrels per day since the conflict began—could return to the market, easing the war risk premium.
Given the potential for heightened volatility in oil prices this week, Yuanta recommends a cautious, wait-and-see stance for investors in oil-related stocks, pending further clarity on the negotiations.
