Mr. Koraphat Vorachet, Assistant Director and Division Head of Research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated in the “Kaohoon” program on November 27, 2025, that Asian markets are heading toward negative territory due to their domestic factors. As for Thailand, the country’s economic growth in the fourth quarter will be weighted by the flood crisis in the southern region.
Nonetheless, KSS stated that water levels in several areas are receding, suggesting that the worst may have already passed. If the situation can be resolved and recovery achieved within 25 days, which KSS considered the base case, the damage value could be limited to approximately THB 19.7 billion. Mr. Koraphat also stated that the flood incident will have limited impacts on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index as well.
Back in 2011, the flood crisis pulled the SET Index down from around 1,100 points to about 850 points, and the market took four months to recover to its pre-incident level. This time, however, Mr. Koraphat stated that recovery should take only a few weeks, as the SET Index is supported by positive sentiment from the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, both of which will happen in December.
Moreover, according to the Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s third quarter report, the nation’s domestic demand growth failed to meet estimates, increasing the possibility that the central bank will cut rates. As a result, the foreign investors have been buying Thai stocks for a period of time. KSS considers this as a positive sentiment.
Mr. Koraphat added that once the flood crisis passes the peaking moment, investors will adopt a recovery strategy, focusing on the decoration sector such as Home Product Center PCL (SET: HMPRO), DOHOME PCL (SET: DOHOME), SCG Decor PCL (SET: SCGD), and, especially, Siam Global House PCL (SET: GLOBAL). He advised investors to keep an eye on the movement of retail, consumer financial, hotel, and hire-purchase sectors.
Besides GLOBAL, KSS highly recommends stocks such as Gulf Development PCL (SET: GULF), as it is benefiting from the increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut this December, and Krungthai Bank PCL (SET: KTB), which the securities company views as a value play and is also benefiting from news of the share repurchase program.
