On Thursday, the share price of TMBThanachart Bank Public Company Limited (SET: TTB) at the time of 3.18 p.m. was at THB 2.08, a THB 0.09 or 4.52% increase with a total trading value of THB 1,671.88 million.
Tisco Securities stated that after TTB announced last year its plan to conduct annual share buybacks for three years (2025-2027), TTB yesterday confirmed the program for 2026. The budget allocated is THB 8.9 billion, with a preliminary repurchase price set at 1.90–2.00 baht per share.
The bank will finalize the exact purchase price on January 5 of next year, and the number of shares to be repurchased will be between 4.5–4.7 billion shares, equivalent to 4.58%–4.80% of total outstanding shares. The buyback period is set for January 22 to February 4, 2026.
Analysts highlighted the following views:
1. The program is more positive than expected due to its increased scale. This year, TTB bought back only 2.7 billion shares (2.8% of paid-up capital), so the 2026 program may be about 74% larger than the 2025 estimate.
2. Analysts also noted the significantly shorter buyback period. While the current year’s program took just 10 working days compared with six months in the first year, this could support the share price in the short term.
3. If the second-year program succeeds as planned, the bank may be able to repurchase up to 7.56% of total outstanding shares. It is believed that TTB may cancel the repurchased shares after three years, once the program concludes. The reduced number of shares would help support EPS/DPS (Earnings Per Share/Dividends Per Share) once the tax shield expires in early 2027. TTB is expected to buy back approximately 10% of paid-up capital after the three-year program. Therefore, if full-year net profit does not fall more than 10% from 2025 levels, the bank should be able to maintain its EPS/DPS.
The brokerage maintained a “Buy” recommendation on TTB with a fair value of THB 2.20, seeing the banking sector under pressure from lower total income next year due to the absence of investment income and reduced interest income. However, TTB is expected to lower its credit cost through the reduction of management overlay, which would help support net profit.
TTB’s investment income this year was not significant compared to other banks. Although there is perceived downside risk to DPS in 2026, the risk is viewed as limited for TTB.
