Kasikorn Securities (KS) has maintained its “Outperform” recommendation on Major Cineplex Group (SET: MAJOR), Thailand’s leading movie theater operator, even as the broker revises its target price down to THB 9.2 from THB 12.5, citing muted macroeconomic prospects and lower-than-expected box office momentum.
KS slashed MAJOR’s core profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 18.9%, 20%, and 15.8% respectively. These downgrades reflect an underwhelming list of film releases, weakened consumption sentiment, and lingering impacts from regional events, including floods and anti-Thai sentiment in neighboring Cambodia.
While 2025 is proving to be a tough year—blockbuster lineups could not prevent ticket sales from dropping an estimated 15.3% year-on-year and nine-month core profit slumped by 7.5%—KS sees this as the low point for MAJOR. The company’s stock has plunged 53% year-to-date, now trading at an attractive 0.85x 2026E PBV.
Looking ahead, a slow improvement is expected in 2026. KS, after discussions with MAJOR’s investor relations, anticipates a more robust film slate next year, including Hollywood sequels (Avengers, Dune, Spiderman, Jumanji) and popular local horror titles, which could propel revenue recovery. The number of films is projected to be 4.1% higher than 2025 and 7% above pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
Despite the revised projections, KS still expects MAJOR’s core profit to grow 8.2% in 2025, 12.7% in 2026, and 9.7% in 2027, implying a 10.1% CAGR for the next three years. MAJOR currently trades at 8.9x 2026 PER and offers an attractive dividend yield of 5.6% with an 8.2% ROE.
KS’ new SOTP-based target price of THB 9.2 reflects both core business valuation and investments, the latter lowered in response to weaker market prospects for affiliates like TKN, WORK, and MJLF.
