Krungsri Research wrote that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) assesses the economy as slowing down clearly amid increasing downside risks. The committee forecasts GDP growth this year at 2.2%, before lowering the 2026 projection to 1.5% (previously 1.6%), and expects a recovery to 2.3% in 2027.
For the 2026 economy, private consumption is expected to slow in line with income, and exports are likely to be affected by U.S. import tariff measures, while the tourism sector is gradually recovering. The MPC expects headline inflation to remain low—forecasting -0.1% in 2025, 0.3% in 2026, and 1.0% in 2027— due to lower global energy prices, government cost-of-living subsidies, and limited demand-side inflationary pressure.
The MPC noted that deflation risks should be closely monitored. Krungsri Research expects the MPC to cut the policy interest rate by an additional 0.25% to 1.0% within 1H26.
Regarding tourism, recovery remains slow. Foreign tourist arrivals are expected at 35.5 million in 2026. In November, there were 2.91 million international arrivals to Thailand, down 7.5% YoY, bringing the total to 29.6 million in the first 11 months of 2025, a 7.3% contraction.
From December 1–14, 2025, another 1.37 million international tourists arrived, raising the year-to-date total to 31.0 million. The recovery in the latter half of December must be closely monitored, with a risk that total foreign arrivals in 2025 may fall short of Krungsri Research’s forecast of 33.3 million.
For 2026, Thailand’s tourism sector is expected to gradually recover because of various constraints: concerns over the safety of Chinese tourists, border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, intensified competition from other regional tourist destinations, and the stronger baht compared to rival countries.
Support from global tourism recovery, expanded air routes, and increased international flights will help sustain Thailand’s tourism sector going forward. It is estimated that foreign tourist arrivals in 2026 will return to 35.5 million, reflecting a gradual rebound to a level close to that of 2024, amid persistent domestic and international risk factors.
