Chalerm Harnphanich, Chief Executive Officer of Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: BCH), revealed to “Kaohoon” that the outlook for operations in 4Q25 indicates that revenue from medical services will grow well compared to 3Q25 and 4Q24.
The positive outlook was due to the seasonal disease outbreaks occurring earlier in the quarter, including diseases prevalent during the rainy season such as dengue fever, contact and waterborne diseases, and respiratory-related diseases such as influenza and RSV virus (Respiratory Syncytial Virus), which is commonly found in children.
These factors have resulted in a high volume of out-patients (OPD) seeking services, and the in-patient occupancy rate has exceeded 70%. Additionally, there will be a gradual payment of outstanding medical bills from Kuwaiti patients, amounting to approximately THB 246 million by year-end.
For the overall performance in 2025, the company remains confident that revenue from medical services will grow compared to the 2024 total revenue of THB 11,846.15 million. In the first nine months of 2025, revenue from medical services has already reached THB 9,033.80 million. This is due to the increasing number of patient cases within the hospital network, consistent with the promotion of more specialized departments.
BCH also assessed that profitability will improve over 2024, thanks to effective cost and overall expense management, and no pressure from reimbursement of severe diseases (AdjRW>2), where this year’s reimbursement rate reached THB 12,000, compared to last year’s THB 8,000 for the same period.
Regarding Kasemrad International Aranyaprathet Hospital, a 100-bed facility near the Thai-Cambodian border, operational performance slowed down in 3Q25 and into 4Q25 due to border disputes and a temporary closure to general patients. In early to mid-2025, however, operational performance had grown by approximately 20% year-on-year from 2024.
Since December 26, 2025, the hospital has resumed accepting general patients, which is expected to support the recovery of performance, and it remains able to serve injured soldiers, being only about 8 kilometers from the border checkpoint.
For 2026, the company targets a 5–10% revenue growth from medical services compared to 2025, in line with the expansion of Thai patient numbers, both cash and social security patients, who are in the hospital network at over 1 million—the highest in the private hospital group.
Patient numbers increase every year, along with the expansion of international patients, especially at World Medical Hospital, not yet including the return of Kuwaiti patients, which would provide upside to 2026 performance. As for Kasemrad International Vientiane Hospital, results are expected to improve from the growing number of cases among both Laotian and international patients.
The THB 1,480 million investment plan for Kasemrad Rayong Hospital, a 200–300 bed facility targeting social security patients, is progressing well and currently under building construction, with completion scheduled for late 2027 and official operations beginning early 2028.
For Kasemrad Suvarnabhumi Hospital in Samut Prakan province, a 268-bed project with an investment of THB 1,650 million, piling is underway, with construction completion planned for late 2027 and official opening in early 2028.
Yuanta Securities (Thailand) recommends “Buy” on BCH shares, with a target price of THB 13.40, expecting 4Q25 normalized profit at THB 350 million baht, growing both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year due to disease outbreaks deferred from 3Q25. If the Kuwaiti outstanding bills are paid, there may be a reversal of around THB 7 million in provisions.
BCH share price year-to-date has fallen by 33%, compared to the hospital group decline of 23%. According to the brokerage firm, the stock price has already priced in all negative factors, and while 2026 growth may not be high, it will outperform the group due to a strong international and social security clients base, making BCH the top pick among private hospitals for 2026.
