Maybank Securities (Thailand) has upgraded its outlook on the Thai power sector from ‘Neutral’ to ‘Positive’ for 2026, citing a return to defensiveness, upcoming growth opportunities from the new Power Development Plan (PDP), and strong earnings prospects.
Maybank expects the release of a new PDP for public hearing this year, with a significantly larger planned power capacity than the FY24 draft. The revision stems from increased electricity demand projections, led by rising data center growth and rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs).
As a result, the new PDP is likely to support greater investments in both conventional and renewable power, although no new project tenders are expected in the same year. Gulf Development (GULF) stands out as the major winner from this change, according to the analyst, thanks to its track record in capturing Independent Power Producer (IPP) and renewable project contracts.
Declining gas prices and the recent adjustment in the Feed-in-Tariff rate (Ft) by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) are expected to normalize the spark spread—the margin between electricity prices and fuel costs. Maybank forecasts FY26 SPP gas prices will drop to THB 300/mmbtu, down 6.3% year-on-year, reflecting both lower domestic and imported LNG costs.
The Ft rate has been reduced to THB 3.88/kWh, and the sector is now able to properly pass on energy costs, restoring its traditionally defensive nature. Maybank estimates normalized spark spreads of THB 1.3-1.6/kWh for the year.
BCPG takes the top spot among sector picks, expected to post FY26 core profit growth of 63% year-on-year, the highest among peers. The company’s earnings strength is supported by high PJM capacity payments at least through May 2028, and its valuation remains attractive at only 9.0x FY26 P/E, against the sector’s average of 15.1x.
Meanwhile, GULF is the second pick, positioned to capitalize on upcoming PDP-led opportunities with a forecasted 5-year core profit CAGR of 8% (FY25-30E), supported by a robust new capacity pipeline.
