Krungsri Securities has upgraded its outlook for Thailand’s hotel sector from Neutral to Bullish, projecting a robust rebound in international tourism that is expected to drive sector earnings higher in 2026. The firm now forecasts tourist arrivals in Thailand to surge to 35.5 million in FY2026, marking an 8% rise from 2025, according to the latest data from Krungsri Research and the Bank of Thailand (BOT). This significant uptick in tourist numbers is anticipated to accelerate sector earnings growth to 10% in 2026, up from just 3% projected for 2025.
The firm notes that international tourism is showing steady global growth, with the United Nations Tourism body forecasting worldwide arrivals to edge up 2% year-on-year to 1.57 billion in 2026, led by strong demand in Asia. In Thailand, tourist arrivals had slowed to 32.97 million in 2025 due to safety concerns, but authorities now expect a sharp rebound, estimating between 35.5 to 36.7 million arrivals in 2026. Tailwinds include the anticipated recovery in Chinese tourism, increased visitors from South Asia and Europe, and marquee events such as the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok and Tomorrowland Thailand 2026.
Krungsri Securities expects hotel sector profits to climb 10% in 2026 to Bt15.2 billion, up from Bt13.8 billion in 2025. This growth will be underpinned by rising international arrivals, increased occupancy rates that could reach pre-pandemic levels (68-80%), and modest gains in room rates. Key outperformers identified include Asset World Corp (AWC), projected to post 24% earnings growth due to new hotel openings and surging domestic tourism, and Central Plaza Hotel (CENTEL), expected to see 15% growth from strong performances across its Thai, Japanese, and Maldives portfolios as well as robust food and beverage operations. The Erawan Group (ERW) is also forecasted to deliver 12% growth on higher occupancy, while Minor International (MINT) and S Hotels & Resorts (SHR) may see more moderate, single-digit gains as they focus on debt reduction.
Top Picks: AWC and CENTEL
AWC and CENTEL are Krungsri Securities’ top picks, thanks to their substantial exposure to Thailand’s tourism rebound—AWC’s operations are entirely domestic, while 73% of CENTEL’s revenues also come from the Thai market. They stand to benefit directly from the influx of international arrivals, with AWC and CENTEL expected to post standout earnings growth in 2026. Although geopolitical risks remain a factor that could sway travel sentiment, the sector’s outlook is buoyed by government stimulus, the return of Chinese tourists from February-March 2026, and new growth initiatives.
