Krungsri Securities has maintained a “Buy” recommendation and a target price of THB 80 with all estimates unchanged for CP All Public Company Limited (SET: CPALL), representing a 84% upside from THB 43.50 at the closing on Monday
The brokerage firm highlighted that CPALL’s convenience store (CVS) business remains the core profit driver, with a projected 4Q25F core profit of THB7 billion—up 1% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter. In addition robust sales of ready-to-eat products also lifted the company’s consolidated gross margin.
CPALL’s leadership in Thailand’s fast-growing CVS sector along with its attractive valuation supports Krungsri’s bullish outlook. The company is currently trading at an 11.6x of fiscal year 2026 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is about 2 standard deviations below its long-term average.
If CPALL’s core profit for the fourth quarter of 2025 matches expectations, the firm estimates that the full-year 2025 profit would reach 96% of its annual forecast. Full-year 2025 results are scheduled to be announced on 25 February 2026.
For 4Q25F, Same-store sales growth (SSSG) for the CVS segment may dip by 2%, while both the wholesale and retail segments are set to remain flat or contract by 3% respectively. The report noted that all business segments were negatively impacted by severe flooding in southern Thailand during the quarter. However, the wholesale segment outperformed, benefiting from the government’s co-payment (Half-Half) program, which spurred increased sales among small-scale HORECA (hotels, restaurants, catering) customers.
Consolidated gross margin is expected to expand by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 23.1%, supported by the increased share of ready-to-eat sales—an area that typically offers higher margins compared to the company’s average. Selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) as a proportion of sales are expected to rise 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 20.8%, reflecting higher promotional expenditure amid a sluggish economy.
Looking ahead to 2026, Krungsri anticipates soft SSSG due to ongoing challenging economic conditions in Thailand. Nevertheless, CPALL’s CVS business is forecast to be the most resilient segment in the commerce sector, thanks to its entrenched popularity with Thai consumers.
However, a notable risk remains: persistently soft consumption trends in Thailand could weigh on CPALL’s sales and profitability, even as Krungsri pegs its target price at a 22x fiscal year 2026 P/E. The current valuation presents a significant discount, reinforcing CPALL as the top pick in the local commerce sector despite prevailing economic headwinds.
