On January 20, the share price of Ichitan Group Public Company Limited (SET: ICHI) surged. During the trading session, the price reached a high of THB 14.20 before closing at THB 13.90, an increase of THB 0.30 or 2.21%. Trading value exceeded THB 170.78 million following expectations that the 2026 dividend yield would remain high at 8%.
Tan Passakornnatee, CEO of ICHI, told “Kaohoon” that the rise in share price was likely due to market mechanisms. Regarding the overall performance in 2025, net profit continued to grow despite sales missing the target. The improved profit came from several factors, including reduced expenses, effective marketing strategies, and a one-time gain from land sales.
In 2025, the company set a total revenue target of THB 9.5 billion, representing a 10% increase from 2024’s total revenue of THB 8.67 billion. For the first nine months of 2025, the company posted total revenue of THB 6.29 billion and a net profit of THB 1.01 billion.
For 2026, the company still targets continuous growth, setting a revenue growth goal of 10-15% from 2025, driven by both market expansion and new product launches. This will include products in the tea beverage segment as well as other non-tea beverages, with alkaline water continuing to be a strong seller.
Yuanta Securities (Thailand) maintained its “Buy” recommendation on ICHI, choosing it as the Top pick among beverage stocks for 2026 and keeping the fair value at THB 16.80 per share, based on a P/E (Price-to-Earnings ratio) valuation of 16.6 times.
The share price has risen 28.6% in the past six months, but the stock is still trading at a P/E of 13.3 times, which is considered not expensive. The dividend yield remains attractive at around 8% per year, with an expected second-half 2025 dividend of THB 0.50 per share.
The brokerage firm forecasts normal profit in 4Q25 in the range of THB 280-340 million, down from the previous quarter due to the winter season and typically higher year-end employee expenses, such as bonuses.
However, Yuanta expect 4Q25 profit to outperform the same period last year due to 1) higher revenue base following the launch of new large-bottle alkaline water products, continuous expansion of distribution channels, two more new SKUs in 4Q25, and strong OEM business income growth from a low base when production capacity was previously limited; and 2) a positive impact from the “Half-Half Plus” government measure, which boosted purchasing power.
The 4Q25 gross profit margin is expected to stay above 25%, slightly lower than the previous quarter following the U-rate, but still higher than the same period last year due to the company’s cost-saving strategies at the plant and a stronger focus on its own brands, supporting the product mix despite higher depreciation expenses from expanded production capacity earlier in 2025. The securities firm maintains their full-year normal profit forecast for 2025 at THB 1.24 billion, a 2.9% decline from last year.
Yuanta also expects normal profit in 1Q26 to return to growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year due to the start of the summer season in March and the previous year’s low base, when the company had yet to launch the new alkaline water line or generate OEM or expanded distribution channel revenue. Additionally, the company is negotiating with a new major client for contract manufacturing, aiming to begin production and recognize revenue within 1Q26, which represents additional upside not yet included in forecasts.
For 2026, the analyst firm anticipate a normal profit of THB 1.32 billion, growing 6.3% from last year, driven by 1) a full year contribution from new products launched in 2025 and continued new product launches for both modern trade and traditional trade channels; 2) full-year OEM revenue recognition for IF, with further upside if IF expands orders or secures new clients; and 3) an expanding gross profit margin, reflecting lower plastic pellet prices in line with declining oil prices.
