- Geopolitics as a Permanent Backdrop: Geopolitical risks are expected to remain a dominant theme in 2026, driving market volatility and fundamentally shaping asset allocation strategies.
- Asia Outperformers: Japan and China emerge as the top-rated markets for 2026, with 21% of respondents identifying them as key outperformers, surpassing India and Singapore.
- AI Moves from Pilot to Production: Artificial Intelligence adoption is accelerating, with over half of fund managers already deploying AI to refine investment processes and enhance business productivity.
Singapore-based fund managers anticipate heightened geopolitical risks and market volatility in 2026, according to the latest IMAS Investment Managers’ Outlook Survey. While perspectives on global inflation remain nuanced, 69% of respondents expect the US Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts exceeding 0.5% by year-end, signaling a trend toward monetary easing despite macroeconomic uncertainty. Furthermore, 60% of respondents express concern that the independence of major central banks may erode in 2026, reflecting anxieties over political encroachment on monetary policy.
The 11th edition of this annual survey gathered insights from C-suite professionals across 63 IMAS member firms. These participants, including Singapore-based fund managers and asset owners, collectively oversee more than USD 35 trillion in global assets. The survey explores how firms are navigating shifting macro conditions, geopolitical frictions, and structural industry transitions while identifying the core themes poised to drive capital allocation.
High-Conviction Opportunities in Asia
Market sentiment for 2026 remains decidedly positive across the Asian landscape. Japan and China were identified as the most promising markets (each cited by 21% of respondents), followed by India (13%), Singapore (11%), and Taiwan (11%).
This regional optimism is reflected in equity forecasts: 72% of managers expect the MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index to rise by 10% to 20%, with 73% forecasting similar gains for the MSCI China Index by late 2026. Notably, this bullish outlook persists despite the fact that 61% of respondents do not expect China’s GDP growth to accelerate, suggesting that optimism is rooted in attractive valuations, policy interventions, and specific sector opportunities rather than broad macroeconomic expansion.
In the domestic market, nearly 90% of respondents expect the Straits Times Index (STI) to strengthen or remain stable, bolstered by resilient corporate earnings, robust dividend yields, and government initiatives aimed at revitalizing the equity ecosystem. Regarding currency, 46% of respondents anticipate the USD/SGD pair to weaken by 5% to 10%, while 39% expect the exchange rate to remain stable.
Global Markets & Commodities:
- US Equities: Sentiment remains constructive, with 54% forecasting a 10% to 20% rise in the S&P 500.
- Gold: Investors view the precious metal favorably; 50% expect gains of 12.5% to 25%, while nearly 90% expect prices to either rise or hold steady.
- Oil: Expectations remain range-bound, with 46% projecting prices to stay flat and 25% anticipating a modest rise of 5% to 10%.
From Experimentation to Execution: AI Reshapes Operation
“The survey results demonstrate that fund managers are successfully adapting to sustained uncertainty, identifying high-conviction opportunities in Asia even as geopolitical risks escalate,” said Jenny Sofian, Chairman of IMAS. “For Singapore-based managers, this environment coincides with persistent margin pressures and operational complexity, necessitating a shift from experimentation to disciplined execution. The focus is now on scalable business models and the practical deployment of AI to deliver measurable productivity gains. In an intensifying competitive landscape, the winners will be those who can marry sound investment judgment with technology-enabled operational efficiency.”
Data from new survey questions indicates that AI adoption has matured significantly. More than half of respondents are now using AI in core investment functions, such as generating research insights and fund commentary. Leading Fintech interests remain centered on advanced analytics, machine learning, and Generative AI.
The primary driver behind this technological pivot is operational efficiency, with productivity enhancement and cost reduction cited as the most significant benefits. Beyond investment decision-making, respondents identified fund operations, middle-office functions, and research as the areas most impacted by technological transformation.
Structural Pressures and Market Durability
When assessing threats to Singapore’s asset management industry over the next 12 months, managers continue to point to the rise of passive solutions and ongoing margin erosion as primary concerns. However, 2026 marks the emergence of a new anxiety: the fear that the strong market performance of 2025 may be unsustainable. This suggests a heightened sensitivity to market durability alongside long-standing structural challenges.
“This year’s findings show that managers are responding to margin pressure by becoming far more selective,” noted Thomas Kaegi, Chairperson of the IMAS Development Committee. “Rather than broad expansion, firms are prioritizing initiatives that offer tangible outcomes – such as AI-driven productivity, a continued rotation into private assets and alternatives, and the adoption of leaner operating models.”
ESG: From Differentiation to Implementation
Sustainability has transitioned from a competitive differentiator to a baseline institutional capability. ESG integration into existing strategies remains the most prevalent approach in 2026. Notably, the drive to improve ESG disclosures beyond regulatory mandates has risen to third place in the rankings, highlighting a commitment to reporting discipline. Conversely, the launch of new sustainable-specific asset classes has slowed, indicating that firms are now embedding ESG into their total investment process rather than treating it as a standalone product category.
The themes of this survey will be explored further at the IMAS Investment Conference & Masterclass on 7 April 2026. Themed “Rewired, Reshaped, Redefined: Asia’s Role in a New World Order,” the event will examine the evolving role of Asian capital markets.
Learn more: https://imas.org.sg/imasconference2026/
View the 2026 Infographic: https://imas.org.sg/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMOS-2026- infographic_to-circulate.pdf
About the Investment Management Association of Singapore (IMAS)
Founded on 22 September 1997 by 10 founding institutions, IMAS has grown to represent over 160 members. As the premier representative body for investment managers in Singapore, IMAS is dedicated to fostering high standards of professionalism, promoting best practices, and enhancing public awareness of the industry. IMAS serves as a collective forum to improve research standards, fund management expertise, and investor education.
