The share price of True Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: TRUE) bounced back on Friday following a sharp decline by nearly 15% in the prior session due to a panic sell after Telenor, a major shareholder, exited the company.
TRUE is trading at THB 10.80 per share in early trading hours on Friday, up around 2% from the closing of THB 10.60 per share yesterday.
TRUE came under intense selling pressure on Thursday afternoon followed an announcement that Telenor, a major international telecommunications group, had reached an agreement to transfer 24.95% of its 30.3% stake in TRUE to Arise Digital Technology, a company controlled by Mr. Suphachai Chearavanont, CEO of Charoen Pokphand (CP) Group. After this transaction, the Chearavanont family’s total effective holding in TRUE will rise to 55.3%, consolidating its control over the company.
Telenor priced the transaction at THB 11.70 per share—a 5.6% discount from the previous day’s closing price, yet notably higher than the heavily discounted levels seen in the trading session on Thursday. The market reaction appears to be driven by concerns over potential changes in TRUE’s management structure, with Telenor’s directors set to leave the board.
Morgan Stanley (MS) maintains an Overweight rating on TRUE, noting minimal near-term impact from this transaction and reaffirming its investment thesis centered on cost-cutting, de-leveraging, and capital returns.
In contrast, JPMorgan (JPM) has downgraded TRUE to Neutral, citing an expected increase in risk premium as the market adjusts to the prospect of possible Board and management changes after Telenor’s potential full exit in two years.
Following a rally of 146% in TRUE shares since December 2023—against a 7% decline in the SET Index—JPM expects the market to price in higher execution risk premiums. TRUE shares have dropped about 15% since the announcement of the stake sale, notably underperforming the SET Index’s small dip of 0.5%. JPM has cut long-term earnings forecasts for TRUE and revised its target price down to THB 10.70.
Kasikorn Securities noted that the sharp decline in TRUE’s stock price this afternoon has pushed the share price slightly below the transaction price—currently trading at around 11 baht, which is approximately 6% less than the deal price. The brokerage believes the negative market reaction is excessive, particularly relative to shifts in the balance of shareholder powers. At THB 11 per share, TRUE trades at just 6.99x expected 2026 EV/EBITDA and offers an attractive estimated dividend yield of 3.78% for the year. Kasikorn reiterated its ‘Outperform’ rating on TRUE with a target price of THB 14.12 per share.
According to LSEG consensus, the outlook for TRUE remains positive, with analysts’ average target price at THB 15.15 per share. The consensus comprises 15 ‘Buy’ ratings, 1 ‘Hold’, and zero ‘Sell’ recommendations, underlining strong analyst support for the stock.
