Mrs. Chavinda Hanratanakool, Chairwoman of Association of Investment Management Companies (AIMC), stated that AIMC has disclosed the results of a survey of its member asset management companies regarding their outlook for the Thai economy in the upcoming period. Most respondents anticipate that the economy will slow down, while political stability, interest rate trends, and overall economic growth rate will likely be the key factors influencing domestic investment decisions.
The majority of fund managers forecast that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will further reduce the policy interest rate once more to support improved economic growth for Thailand, but the cut will be slight, bringing the rate to 1% by the end of 2026 (currently at 1.25% as of January 2026).
For domestic asset allocation, despite the overall view that institutional investors will increasingly focus on value play, fund managers remain neutral regarding domestic investment and do not overweight any particular asset class. In terms of equities, the emphasis will be on large-cap stocks, with popular sectors including financial institutions, healthcare services, information technology, and tourism & leisure.
Mrs. Chavinda further noted that, for the one-year investment outlook, nearly all Thai fund management teams hold a moderately positive stance towards global economic conditions. Most estimate that the global economy will remain stable and may gradually recover, which aligns with the sentiment captured in the mid-year survey last year.
The main supporting factor is the projected trend of policy interest rates from major economies, which are still likely to be lowered — in particular, the U.S. federal funds rate, which is expected to decrease to 3.25% by the end of 2026, down from 3.75% at the end of the previous year.
Nonetheless, fund management teams remain concerned about the impacts of trade wars stemming from geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflicts in various regions, including prolonged wars, which continuously affect inflation, making it less likely to decrease as anticipated. This could impact the overall recovery of the global economy.
Consensus among fund managers regarding investments in developed market equities is that they remain more attractive compared to other assets, especially U.S. large-cap stocks, which garner the most interest, followed by Japanese and European equities. Leading sectors include information technology, financial institutions, communication services, healthcare services, and utilities.
For investments in bonds, the view is neutral, with a preference for medium-term bonds, especially those from the United States, which are unanimously favored, followed by the United Kingdom, Germany, China, and emerging markets including India.
Notably, investment in emerging market assets is receiving more attention (overweight) compared to previously moderate-to-underweight levels. For alternative assets, the overweight is slightly positive, with gold drawing the most interest, while Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Infrastructure Funds receive some attention as well.
The AIMC survey on the outlook of Thai institutional investors aims to provide a guiding framework for savings and investment, helping to improve overall asset allocation for businesses, investors, and the general public. This, in turn, could create sustainability through investments by businesses or individuals.
