Krungsri Securities stated that after True Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: TRUE) notified the Stock Exchange of Thailand that Telenor Thailand Investment Pte. Ltd. (Telenor), a major shareholder with a 30.30% stake in TRUE, signed an agreement with Arise Digital Technology (Arise)—a company owned by Suphachai Chearavanont—to sell a 24.95% stake in TRUE. At the same time, both parties agreed to a put/call option contract for Telenor’s remaining 5.35% stake, exercisable two years after the completion of the initial transaction.
Several key points that Krungsri had noted include:
- The transaction is strictly between Telenor and Arise (Supachai’s company), not the CP Group. Thus, there will be no tender offer involved in this transaction.
- The deal between Telenor and Arise is expected to conclude within 1–2 months of this announcement, after which the company’s board structure will be adjusted.
- There will be some changes to the management team, but Sigve Brekke, CEO of TRUE, will maintain his position. The company has confirmed that there will be no change to the core strategic plan, including cost reduction, debt repayment, and dividend payout.
- TRUE will not directly participate in or invest in data centers after Telenor’s withdrawal.
Krungsri acknowledged that Telenor’s divestment of its TRUE shares will have a negative impact on TRUE’s price, since the market perceives that TRUE’s swift post-merger operational recovery over the last two years was largely due to Telenor’s support. Telenor’s exit may ignite another cost escalation cycle and reduce financial discipline.
However, the outlook for TRUE’s fundamentals remains positive for the next two years based on:
1) No significant change in TRUE’s profit growth trajectory over the next two years is expected. TRUE is well positioned to achieve profit growth of 97% year-on-year in 2025 and 19.5% YoY in 2026 as mobile and FBB market competition remains subdued with only two key players. There is no reason for TRUE to reignite price or marketing expense wars, which would threaten profitability.
2) Suphachai will acquire TRUE shares from Telenor with approximately THB 100 billion in cash. TRUE’s dividend could be part of Suphachai’s funding source, indicating a healthy dividend per share (DPS). Moreover, TRUE is now part of Arise Ventures—which has joint ventures in areas such as virtual banks—so Arise needs cash-generating firms like TRUE to support other projects. Higher DPS will also help mitigate debt burden for future growth.
The DPS estimates are maintained at THB 0.26 (50% payout ratio) and THB 0.38 (60% payout ratio). There is also a possibility TRUE could raise its payout ratio to 95%, matching Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (SET: ADVANC), in which case DPS in 2026 would be THB 0.59, translating to a dividend yield of 5.60% (higher than ADVANC).
Upon reviewing Telenor’s corporate communications regarding this divestment, the company stated it is part of its core strategy to scale down investments in Asia and focus capital in Norway, its home base. Before the TRUE deal, Telenor exited Telenor Pakistan in December 2025. Hence, this current divestment does not indicate that Telenor sees TRUE’s business as having peaked.
Arise Digital Tech is a subsidiary of Arise Ventures, owned by Suphachai. Arise Ventures is a holding company with a portfolio spanning digital infrastructure, data centers (via TrueIDC), cloud, artificial intelligence (AI), and fintech including a virtual bank (recently licensed) via Ascend Money. The group aims to make Thailand a regional economic hub.
If the TRUE acquisition succeeds, Arise Ventures can comprehensively integrate into digital transformation—owning telecom infrastructure, customer base, AI, data centers, cloud, and fintech. Suphachai stated that Arise will support TRUE by expediting the execution of company strategies, fostering innovation, enhancing customer experience, and creating sustainable value in the rapidly evolving digital landscape while maintaining discipline to maximize shareholder value through dividends.
No dramatic fundamental changes have been observed at TRUE as a result of Telenor’s exit. The “BUY” recommendation for TRUE is maintained with a target price of THB 18.20 per share, as TRUE is favored as a “laggard play” in terms of both value and yield compared to ADVANC.
TRUE’s focus remains on cost control, debt repayment, and dividends. Most importantly, TRUE operates in an oligopolistic market, which minimizes the need for price competition. TRUE’s dividend yield remains intact, as robust per-share dividends will support Suphachai’s financing for this acquisition as Telenor divests to Arise.
InnovestX Securities assessed that although TRUE’s share price dropped 14.50% on January 22, investors are likely in a wait-and-see mode to monitor post-Telenor sale developments. InnovestX retains an OUTPERFORM call for TRUE, as the earnings impact is limited, but cuts the 2026 year-end target price to THB 13.50 (from THB 16) to reflect heightened share price volatility.
The TRUE share price responded negatively following Telenor’s sales announcement, plunging 14.50% due to investors reducing exposure while awaiting post-sale developments, combined with TRUE’s significant outperformance of the SET in the previous two years. The sharp drop likely reflects surprise at Telenor’s sale. Despite limited impact on earnings forecasts, investors are advised to wait before buying on share price weakness.
Share price volatility is expected to persist over the next 3–6 months. The 2026 normalized profit forecast for TRUE is maintained at THB 21 billion, up 20.10% YoY. Concerns remain on risks from slow economic recovery, which would adversely affect TRUE’s growth outlook, particularly for mobile and FBB revenue. Post-Telenor management structure is another area to monitor, as well as ESG risks, especially cybersecurity and user data privacy, which could affect income.
