InnovestX Securities (INVX) disclosed that as Thailand enters the final stage before the general election on February 8, 2026, political parties are intensifying their economic policy proposals. This is expected to act as a supporting factor for the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (SET Index) to respond positively, creating a clear Election Rally phenomenon and presenting a short-term investment opportunity.
Historically, the Thai stock market tends to perform well from about two weeks before the election to around one month after the election. Therefore, INVX recommends a strategy for investors with a high risk tolerance who wish to speculate within about a one-month timeframe, divided into two phases according to market expectations:
Phase 1: Speculation during the campaign period before the election, focusing on stocks that benefit from increased economic circulation. These include the commerce sector—CP ALL Public Company Limited (SET: CPALL), Berli Jucker Public Company Limited (SET: BJC), and Central Pattana Public Company Limited (SET: CPN).
The food and beverage sector—GFPT Public Company Limited (SET: GFPT), and Osotspa Public Company Limited (SET: OSP); and the consumer finance sector—Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited (SET: MTC), Srisawad Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: SAWAD), and Ngern Tid Lor Public Company Limited (SET: TIDLOR).
Phase 2: Speculation after the election results and beginning of government formation, focusing on big cap stocks expected to attract foreign investors returning due to clearer political conditions. These include the commercial banking sector—Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited (SET: BBL), Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited (SET: KTB), and Kasikornbank Public Company Limited (SET: KBANK).
The communications sector—Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (SET: ADVANC), and True Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: TRUE); the energy and power sector—PTT Public Company Limited (SET: PTT), Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF), and Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited (SET: GPSC); and the construction and building materials sector—STECON Group Public Company Limited (SET: STECON), CH. Karnchang Public Company Limited (SET: CK), and The Siam Cement Public Company Limited (SET: SCC).
INVX also noted that this election will be a major turning point for the Thai economy. The impact on GDP will depend on the speed and stability of government formation. If a new government can be established within 1–2 months and promptly push the 2027 budget through the cabinet by 2Q26, it will be most beneficial for the economy.
An analysis of political party policies indicates that most still focus on cash handout policies, which have a lower economic multiplier than infrastructure investment. However, all parties have significantly increased the proportion of infrastructure investment from 2–3% in 2023 to around 15–26% in 2026, reflecting lessons learned from developed countries that grew through long-term investment.
Moreover, political parties’ vision presentations on the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO) forum aimed at solving issues of confidence, liquidity, and structural problems could positively affect Thai stocks over the long term. This would help raise the price-to-earnings ratio (PER) and shift investment focus toward the New S-Curve stocks.
Although Thai stocks have previously moved sideways due to political uncertainty, INVX expects that as the election date draws near, the market will start to react more positively. Data from the last eight general elections show that Thai stocks generated an average return of +0.9% if investing two weeks before the election (Win Rate 62.5%) and an average return of up to +3.9% one month after the election (Win Rate 75%).
The exception was the 2023 election, when Thai stocks declined due to concerns over delayed government formation. However, the 2026 election will require only the 500-member House of Representatives’ votes, which is expected to help reduce political stability risks.
Meanwhile, the post-election rise in Thai stocks has mainly been driven by foreign buying. NVDR Top Buy data one month after the election indicates that the most purchased stocks are usually large caps in banking, communications, and energy sectors.
