FSS International Investment Advisory (FSSIA) has maintained its BUY recommendation for PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited (SET: OR), setting a target price of THB 18.00. While near-term earnings face significant headwinds, analysts argue that the company’s medium-term growth remains intact as it transitions toward a lifestyle-oriented platform.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, FSSIA is expected OR to post a net profit of THB 2.2 billion, a decline of 14.1% quarter-on-quarter and 26.9% year-on-year. This downward pressure is primarily driven by an estimated stock loss of THB 1.3–1.4 billion, resulting from a sharp drop in Dubai crude oil prices during December 2025. Earnings are further dampened by a THB 300 million investment impairment and ongoing operational weakness in Cambodia, which has seen lower fuel volumes and reduced Café Amazon sales.
Performance across OR’s core segments has been mixed. The Mobility business benefited from seasonal high demand, with sales volumes rising 4.0% quarter-on-quarter while maintaining a stable marketing margin of THB 1.02 per litre. Conversely, the Lifestyle business underperformed expectations; Café Amazon sales remained flat at 109 million cups rather than seeing a seasonal increase. This was largely due to the brand’s absence from the “Kon La Krueng Plus” stimulus program and the impact of flooding in southern Thailand.
Consequently, FSSIA has trimmed its 2025 net profit forecast by 4% to THB 11.5 billion. Despite this revision, earnings are still projected to grow by 49.9% year-on-year due to the low base recorded in 2024.
Looking ahead to 2026, profit is expected to rise by 5.8%, supported by margin expansion in the lifestyle segment and improved cost management. Key future catalysts include the expansion of the EV charging ecosystem and the potential monetisation of a virtual bank initiative. While risks such as government price intervention and shifting consumer behaviour toward clean energy remain, OR’s current valuation of 7.1x 2026E EV/EBITDA makes it an attractive pick for investors.
