Krungsri Securities (KSS) recommends Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (SET: IVL) as one of the outstanding stocks, citing a notable recovery signal in the petrochemical product spread, especially the PET Integrated Spread—spanning the entire production chain, which has now surpassed the breakeven point.
This recovery factor is boosting the company’s profit momentum, suggesting an upward trend in the coming period. Simultaneously, it supports IVL’s share prices to rebound above replacement cost, above THB 23, reflecting a positive view toward the business fundamentals and growth potential going forward.
Bualuang Securities also maintains a positive view on energy and petrochemical sector stocks, recommending Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited (SET: SPRC) and Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) due to resilient refinery margins and current share prices trading below fundamental values. This points to attractive valuation and offers an opportunity for share price recovery in the future, consistent with the strong fundamentals of both companies.
The securities company also has a positive outlook on petrochemical equities, namely IVL and PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited (SET: PTTGC), expecting product spreads to gradually recover from 2Q26 onwards, after the sector has passed the bottom of its cycle. This will aid recoveries in performance, aligning with improving demand.
Nevertheless, investors should closely monitor key risks from escalating trade tensions between the United States and its trading partners. If the situation escalates, it could constrain global economic expansion and commodity demand, leading to price and spread volatility and affecting investment sentiment in the near future.
Bualuang Securities further assesses that stocks with strong fundamentals, competitive cost structures, and undemanding valuations remain attractive investment options amid external volatility. Investors are advised to closely follow global economic and investment developments in tandem with selecting quality stocks with long-term growth potential.
Mr. Mongkol Puangpetra, Deputy Managing Director of Investment Strategy at Daol Securities (Thailand), stated that petrochemical stock prices have risen since the beginning of the year, in line with the increase in petrochemical spreads, which have now stabilized and have not declined.
Additionally, the steady crude oil price has kept production costs for petrochemical companies from rising. This, combined with a projected recovery in demand this year, following China’s implementation of economic stimulus measures, is expected to benefit the petrochemical sector as well.
Moreover, earlier this year, the governments of Korea, Japan, and China requested producers to cut capacity, reducing oversupply. However, in the stock market, share prices in the petrochemical segment have climbed, especially for aromatics such as IVL, PTTGC, and The Siam Cement Public Company Limited (SET: SCC).
Analysts at Yuanta Securities (Thailand) note that IVL’s stock price has jumped 30% over the past two months, reflecting low valuation, while 2026 performance is expected to gradually recover, with profit projected at THB 4.5 billion, supported by operational efficiency, cost reduction, new price contract negotiations, U.S. PET import tariff benefits, and fewer plant shutdowns.
The progress on resolving overseas oversupply should be clearer this year. Recently, government authorities in many areas have started to reduce industry production capacity. However, in the short term, 4Q25 earnings still lag behind 3Q25, with Asia Industry Integrated Spread at $116 per ton and large PO/MTBE plant turnarounds scheduled (September–November), seasonal demand slowdowns, and potential inventory losses from oil price fluctuations.
Presently, there are no reports of IVL’s U.S. plants being affected (U.S. EBITDA share accounts for 70%). However, the situation should be monitored as severe cold weather could force plant shutdowns.
