InnovestX Securities, the flagship investment arm under SCBX Group, offers its 2026 investment outlook under the theme “Riding the Wild Horse.” The firm expects global financial markets to continue delivering attractive returns, supported by a slowing—yet still resilient—global economy that is not expected to enter recession. Global monetary policy is anticipated to remain largely accommodative, particularly in the first half of the year.
However, market volatility is expected to increase due to risks tied to U.S. economic and foreign policy, alongside increasingly stretched valuations. As a result, investors will need disciplined and selective strategies. For overseas investment, InnovestX continues to favor global equities outside the U.S. (ROW), U.S. small-cap stocks, and select emerging markets where valuations remain reasonable. Attractive sectors include those poised to benefit from AI, infrastructure, and energy themes, complemented by diversification into quality bonds and gold.
For the Thai equity market, InnovestX forecasts the SET Index in a range of 1,350–1,400 points, with an upward trend expected in the first quarter supported by the general election and priority policies from the incoming government. Industries likely to outperform are those with high domestic revenue exposure and defensive characteristics, including healthcare, commerce, and telecommunications.
Mr. Sutthichai Kumworachai, Head of Research Department, InnovestX said: “We expect 2026 investments to still deliver positive returns, underpinned by a global economy that continues to grow—albeit at a slower pace—without tipping into recession. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts early in the year will support markets, although volatility is likely to rise, especially into mid-year when inflation concerns may resurface.
Investment selection and diversification will be key, as elevated valuations across many markets increase vulnerability to unexpected shocks. Additional risks include potential escalation of trade tensions due to President Trump’s unpredictable stance, rising financial market volatility, and global economic challenges stemming from high debt levels, climate change, and geopolitical tensions—particularly involving China–Japan over Taiwan, unrest in the Middle East, and ongoing U.S.–China and intra-European conflicts.”
Dr. Piyasak Manason, Head of Economic Research, InnovestX stated: “The global economy in 2026 is expected to follow a ‘Year of Two Halves’ pattern—slowing in the first half due to trade disputes and policy delays, then rebounding in the second half supported by fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile, the rise of Global South alliances—particularly BRIC—will become increasingly influential. Businesses will continue adopting AI at scale, while climate-related risks may heighten global economic volatility due to the potential onset of La Niña.”
Regarding Thailand, the economy continues to face challenges from uneven recovery, fragile household purchasing power, and slow private investment. InnovestX expects Thai GDP growth of around 1.4% in 2026, lower than the previous year. However, momentum is likely to improve in the second half on the back of government stimulus measures and large-scale infrastructure projects.
The upcoming election will be a decisive factor for Thailand’s 2026 economic direction. A smooth government formation and Cabinet approval of the 2027 fiscal budget within Q2—before submission to Parliament—would help prevent significant delays in budget implementation. If executed as promised, political parties’ stimulus initiatives could lift Thailand’s GDP from the baseline by 0.12–0.50 percentage points.
Dr. Rhatsarun Tanapaisankit, Head of Investment Strategy & Head of Trading Product Specialist, InnovestX “The 2026 asset allocation strategy should balance market participation with disciplined risk selection, under the concept ‘Stay Invested, Stay Selective.’ Global equities will remain the core of investor portfolios, with an emphasis on markets outside the U.S. where valuations are still attractive. Key themes include AI, digital transformation, and mid‑ to small‑cap stocks whose earnings are recovering.
Investors can access these strategies through thematic funds such as SCBRS2000(A), KFCHINA‑T10PLUS‑A, and K‑INDX, as well as InnovestX’s DR23 series, which provides access to foreign ETFs and individual stocks via the Thai stock market. Examples include China‑focused DRs such as CHNXT5023, HSHD23, BABA23, SMIC23, and Japan-focused picks such as SOFTBANK23, SUSHI23, TEL23, offering enhanced portfolio diversification.
For fixed income, InnovestX recommends focusing on high‑quality bonds with medium duration (3–5 years) to help reduce portfolio volatility. For alternative assets, Bitcoin should be limited to a small allocation, while gold remains an effective hedge. The firm recommends the UOBSG‑H fund for gold exposure.”
Mr. Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, Head of Investment Strategy, InnovestX said: “For global markets, we recommend a selective approach, prioritizing quality stocks with clear earnings growth. In the U.S., platform technology and healthcare remain standout sectors, with names such as Amazon, Google, Meta, and Eli Lilly. In Europe, premium brands and clean energy players are compelling—examples include LVMH and Orsted. For China, we highlight tech and industrial companies supported by government policy, such as Tencent and CATL.”
For the Thai equity market, InnovestX recommends selecting stocks that align with key investment themes. Quality dividend plays such as AP and KTB remain attractive for generating consistent cash flow. Meanwhile, growth stocks with recovering earnings—including MTC and TRUE—offer opportunities for more aggressive investors. Additionally, value and recovery stocks that continue to trade below their fundamental value, particularly in the tourism, food, and retail sectors—such as CENTEL, TU, CPALL, and OR—also present compelling prospects.
InnovestX, the investment platform under the SCBX Group—the same group as Siam Commercial Bank—provides investors with Access and Advantage through a comprehensive all‑in‑one platform spanning global markets. Investors can access comprehensive investment information, market insights, and research analysis at www.innovestx.co.th/cafeinvest, as well as through Facebook and LINE Official: @InnovestX.
